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Japanese Yen May Rise as Year-End Capital Flows Begin to Emerge

Japanese Yen May Rise as Year-End Capital Flows Begin to Emerge

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Japanese Yen May See Recovery as Year-End Capital Flows Start to Emerge
  • British Pound Looks to 3Q GDP Revision to Inform BOE Rate Hike Outlook
  • US Dollar May Rise on Fed Tightening Bets if News-Flow Proves Supportive

Seasonal factors may increasingly factor into price action as the on-coming Thanksgiving holiday in the US unofficially marks the beginning of the market-wide liquidity drain leading into the turn of the calendar year. This may herald a period of profit-taking on some of the stand-out trends of 2014 as investors move to secure year-end performance numbers. That may bode ill for sentiment-geared assets, with the Japanese Yen rising amid carry trade liquidation while high-yielding FX (such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars) faces selling pressure.

A revised set of third-quarter UK GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations point to confirmation of earlier estimates showing output growth slowed for the first time in nearly two years, with the year-on-year growth rate ticking down to 3 percent from the 3.2 percent recorded in the second quarter. A downward revision may weigh on the British Pound as traders push out BOE rate hike expectations further into the future. Alternatively, an upgrade may fuel bets on sooner tightening and lift the currency.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to a diverse medley of US economic data releases. Durable Goods Orders figures, the weekly Jobless Claims report, Personal Income and Spending statistics as well as Pending and New Home Sales numbers are all due to cross the wires. US news-flow has cautiously improved relative to expectations over the past week (according to data from Citigroup). If this proves to foreshadow upside surprises on some of the day’s outcomes, the US Dollar may secure the fuel for another push higher amid firming Fed policy bets.

Currency markets were decidedly quiet in overnight trade, with most of the majors oscillating in narrow ranges against the greenback. The Yen narrowly outperformed, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked a modest decline on Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index, pointing to support from haven-seeking flows as the catalyst behind the Yen’s advance. The correlation between the equities benchmark and USDJPY is now 0.96 on rolling 20-day studies.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

Construction Work Done (3Q)

-2.2%

-1.9%

-1.2%

1:30

JPY

BOJ’s Shirai Speaks in Hiroshima

-

-

-

1:45

CNY

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (NOV)

110.0

-

110.9

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (NOV)

47.7

47.5

47.4

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (MoM) (OCT)

-0.5%

0.3%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

-1.5%

-1.6%

Low

7:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (OCT)

-

1.41

Medium

9:10

EUR

ECB's Constancio Speaks in London

-

-

Low

9:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q P)

3.0%

3.0%

High

9:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.7%

0.7%

High

9:30

GBP

Private Consumption (3Q P)

0.6%

0.6%

Low

9:30

GBP

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (3Q P)

2.3%

1.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

Government Spending (3Q P)

0.2%

1.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

Exports (3Q P)

-0.1%

-0.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

Imports (3Q P)

0.7%

-0.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (SEP

0.4%

0.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (SEP)

0.7%

0.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (QoQ) (3Q P)

2.3%

3.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (YoY) (3Q P)

9.7%

11.0%

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (NOV)

28

31

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2284

1.2369

1.2422

1.2454

1.2507

1.2539

1.2624

GBPUSD

1.5524

1.5611

1.5659

1.5698

1.5746

1.5785

1.5872

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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