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US Dollar, Pound May Fall as Soft Inflation Data Hurts Rates Outlook

US Dollar, Pound May Fall as Soft Inflation Data Hurts Rates Outlook

2014-11-18 03:20:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Extend Losses as Soft CPI Undermines BOE Rates Outlook
  • Overnight US Dollar Weakness May Continue as PPI Drop Weakens Fed Bets
  • See Economic Data Flow Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

October’s UK CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to print at 1.2 percent, unchanged from the five-year low recorded in the prior month. Leading survey data hints a downside surprise may be in the cards however. PMI figures from Markit Economics suggest output prices in the service sector fell for the first time in 17 months in October while those on the manufacturing side rose at the slowest pace in since June 2013. A soft outcome is likely to pour cold water on BOE rate hike speculation, weighing on the British Pound.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to US PPI figures. The year-on-year wholesale inflation rate is seen slowing to 1.3 percent in October, marking an eight-month low. Leading indicators reinforce the probability of a downtick, showing factory-gate prices in the manufacturing sector rose at the slowest pace in four months in October. Service-sector pricing trends likewise pointed to moderation over the same period.

Investors may interpret a weak result as suggesting that the Fed will be relatively slow to issue its first post-QE interest rate hike, punishing the US Dollar. In fact, ebbing support from the policy outlook already appeared to sting the greenback overnight, with prices edging lower alongside the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield. Follow-through may prove limited however as markets await the release of minutes from October’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday before showing directional commitment.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

113.0

-

114.8

23:00

AUD

Conference Board Leading Index (SEP)

-0.3%

-

-0.1%

23:50

JPY

Housing Loans (YoY) (3Q)

2.8%

-

2.7%

0:30

AUD

RBA Publishes Nov Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

2:00

CNY

Foreign Direct Investment (OCT)

1.3%

1.1%

1.9%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

EU 25 New Car Registrations (OCT)

-

6.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (OCT)

0.1%

0.0%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (OCT)

1.2%

1.2%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI - Core (YoY) (OCT)

1.6%

1.5%

Medium

9:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (OCT)

0.1%

0.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (OCT)

2.3%

2.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (OCT)

2.3%

2.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

-1.5%

-0.6%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT)

-8.3%

-7.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

-0.2%

-0.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT)

-0.2%

-0.4%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

0.0%

-0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT)

0.8%

0.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (OCT)

11.2%

11.7%

Low

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (NOV)

0.5

-3.6

Medium

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (NOV)

1.7

3.2

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (NOV)

-

4.1

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2225

1.2358

1.2404

1.2491

1.2537

1.2624

1.2757

GBPUSD

1.5434

1.5550

1.5596

1.5666

1.5712

1.5782

1.5898

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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