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  • 🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final (DEC) Actual: 95.3 Expected: 94.9 Previous: 96.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-02-25
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  • Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF, EUR/CAD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usd-cad/2021/02/25/Canadian-Dollar-Price-Forecast-USDCAD-CADJPY-CADCHF-EURCAD.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $CAD $USDCAD $CADJPY $CADCHF $EURCAD https://t.co/e8Xc41LGna
Pound at Risk as BOE Inflation Report Threatens Dovish Tone Shift

Pound at Risk as BOE Inflation Report Threatens Dovish Tone Shift

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound Vulnerable if BOE Inflation Report Marks Dovish Tone Shift
  • NZ Dollar Gained as RBNZ Rhetoric Proved Supportive for Rates Outlook
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The release of the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report is in focus in European trading hours. The publication has evolved into the central vehicle for announcing changes in UK monetary policy over recent years. With that in mind, traders will be keen to gauge the evolution of thinking on the rate-setting MPC committee vis-à-vis the timing of the first post-crisis interest rate hike considering the latest downturn in UK economic news-flow.

Indeed, data from Citigroup reveals that economic data outcomes have dramatically deteriorated since mid-September, with realized results trailing median forecasts by the largest margin in 18 months. If this produces a dovish lean in the central bank rhetoric – especially if such a shift is couched in a downgrade to growth and inflation forecasts – investors may punish the British Pound amid speculation that tightening is farther away than conventional wisdom envisions. As it stands, futures pricing implies the first increase in the benchmark lending rate by June 2015.

The New Zealand Dollar narrowly outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said he sees a risk of resurgence in house-price inflation and will not relax mortgage lending limits for the time being, adding that rates may need to rise again “in the coming years”. The Kiwi’s advance tracked an upswing in New Zealand’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting the RBNZ chief’s remarks proved supportive for policy expectations.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:10

NZD

RBNZ’s Wheeler Testifies

-

-

-

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf Index (NOV)

96.6

-

94.8

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence (NOV)

1.9%

-

0.9%

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (SEP)

1.0%

0.8%

-0.10%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (OCT)

3.2%

3.0%

3.1%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (OCT)

2.6%

2.5%

2.5%

0:30

AUD

Wage Cost Index (QoQ) (3Q)

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

0:30

AUD

Wage Cost Index (YoY) (3Q)

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

0:30

AUD

Credit Card Balances (A$) (SEP)

49.4B

-

49.5B

0:30

AUD

Credit Card Purchases (A$) (SEP

23.9B

-

22.3B

1:00

JPY

BOJ Member Miyao Speaks in Nagasaki

-

-

-

4:30

JPY

BOJ Member Sato Speaks in London

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

-

-0.9%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (OCT)

-

0.1%

Low

8:00

USD

Fed's Plosser Speaks in London

-

-

Low

8:30

EUR

ECB's Visco Speaks in Rome

-

-

Low

9:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (OCT)

-20.0K

-18.6K

Medium

9:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (OCT)

2.7%

2.8%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/Y) (SEP)

0.8%

0.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/Y) (SEP)

1.1%

0.9%

Low

9:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (SEP)

5.9%

6.0%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Employment Change (3M/3M) (SEP)

125K

46K

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP)

0.7%

-1.8%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP)

-0.2%

-1.9%

Medium

10:30

GBP

Bank of England Inflation Report

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2248

1.2352

1.2414

1.2456

1.2518

1.2560

1.2664

GBPUSD

1.5680

1.5790

1.5854

1.5900

1.5964

1.6010

1.6120

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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