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Dollar to Rise if US Payrolls Outperform But Sentiment Impact Unclear

Dollar to Rise if US Payrolls Outperform But Sentiment Impact Unclear

2014-11-07 05:40:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Leading Survey Data Hints US Payrolls Data May Reveal Upside Surprise
  • US Dollar to Rise on Upbeat Jobs Data But Risk Trends Response Unclear
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A European calendar peppered with second-tier releases is unlikely to generate a strong reaction from financial markets as investors look ahead to the much-anticipated US Employment report.Nonfarm payrolls are expected to register an increase of 235,000 in October, marking a bit of a slowdown following the 248,000 gain in September. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5.9 percent.

Leading surveys suggest that the pace of hiring across the manufacturing and services sectors was unchanged compared with the prior month however. Furthermore, data compiled by Citigroup shows that US economic news-flow has broadly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since August, hinting analysts are under-appreciating the recovery’s vigor. On balance, this opens the door for an upside surprise.

The surface-level response from such is likely to see the US Dollar continuing to push higher rosy labor market cues fuel speculation that the Fed may issue its first post-QE3 interest rate hike sooner than markets are expecting. The implications for risk appetite are somewhat clouded however. On one hand, a “risk-on” argument can be made on the basis that a stronger US economy is supportive for overall global growth. On the other, a “risk-off” narrative would likewise make sense considering the formative role of Fed support for sentiment-geared assets.

In the former scenario, high-yielding FX such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars may prove best-supported while the safe-haven Japanese Yen suffers renewed selling pressure. In the latter, the inverse of this dynamic may play out. Either way, the report could prove to be something of a pace-setter for how will interpret forthcoming US news-flow now that Fed asset purchases have ended and tightening speculation can take center stage in earnest.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Construction Index (OCT)

53.4

-

59.1

00:05

USD

Fed's Mester Speaks in New York

-

-

-

00:30

AUD

RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

-

-

-

05:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (OCT)

53.6B

-

60.9B

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (OCT)

3.2%

3.2%

Medium

06:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (OCT)

3.1%

3.0%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP)

2.0%

-4.0%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP)

-0.6%

-2.8%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Current Account (Euro) (SEP)

18.0B

10.3B

Low

07:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (Euro) (SEP)

19.0B

14.0B

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

2.7%

-5.8%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

1.1%

-1.3%

Low

08:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (OCT)

-

462.2B

Low

08:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (SEP)

-

1.9%

Low

09:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (£) (SEP)

-2300M

-1917M

Medium

09:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£) (SEP)

-9500M

-9099M

Low

09:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£) (SEP)

-3700M

-3587M

Low

10:15

GBP

BOE’s Carney Speaks in Paris

-

-

Medium

10:15

EUR

ECB’s Nouy Speaks in Paris

-

-

Low

11:00

EUR

ECB Announces 3yr LTRO Repayment

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2343

1.2439

1.2493

1.2535

1.2589

1.2631

1.2727

GBPUSD

1.5893

1.5944

1.5973

1.5995

1.6024

1.6046

1.6097

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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