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Aussie Dollar Drops on Chinese Data, Pound at Risk on Soft PMI Report

Aussie Dollar Drops on Chinese Data, Pound at Risk on Soft PMI Report

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar Sinks Following Soft Chinese Manufacturing PMI Report
  • US Dollar May Look Past Soft ISM Print After Jumping to Four-Year High
  • Pound at Risk if Slowing Factory Sector Trims BOE Rate Hike Speculation

The Australian Dollar underperformed to start the trading week, sliding as much as 0.7 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The drop followed a disappointing Chinese Manufacturing PMI reading released over the weekend. The report showed factory-sector activity growth unexpectedly slowed to the weakest in five months.

The US Dollar proved strongest on the session, with the benchmark unit rising to the highest level in over four years. A singular catalyst was readily apparent, meaning the move may have reflected follow-on momentum from last week’s surge following a surprise stimulus expansion from the BOJ. The move pushed USDJPY above the 112.00 figure, sending ripples of USD strength across the benchmark currency’s pairings.

October’s UK Manufacturing PMI figure headlines calendar in European trading hours. Sector growth is expected to slow for a fourth consecutive month, hitting the slowest rate in 18 months. UK news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since mid-September, hinting analysts are overestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome is likely to undermine near-term BOE rate hike speculation, weighing on the British Pound.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the US ISM Manufacturing gauge, where the median outlook points to the second straight month of deceleration. As we argued in our weekly US Dollar forecast, the greenback probably won’t find a lasting negative catalyst in a soft result as the Federal Reserve conspicuously looks past near-term business cycle fluctuations to maintain a steady march toward policy normalization.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Manufacturing Index (OCT)

49.4

-

46.5

23:00

AUD

RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (OCT)

1.0%

-

0.1%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

-

0.1%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (OCT)

2.3%

-

2.2%

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (SEP)

-13.4%

-0.9%

16.0%

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (SEP)

-11.0%

-1.0%

3.4%

0:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

-

0.8%

1:00

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI (OCT)

53.8

-

54.0

1:45

CNY

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (OCT F)

50.4

50.4

50.4

5:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index (YoY) (OCT)

-16.9%

-

-16.8%

5:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index (OCT)

88.4

-

87.8

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

CHF

procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (OCT)

51.3

50.4

Medium

8:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (OCT)

50.6

50.7

Low

8:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (OCT F)

47.3

47.3

Low

8:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (OCT F)

51.8

51.8

Medium

9:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (OCT F)

50.7

50.7

Medium

9:30

GBP

Markit UK Mfg PMI s.a. (OCT)

51.4

51.6

High

9:30

EUR

ECB’s Costa Speaks in Lisbon

-

-

Low

12:00

EUR

ECB's Constancio Speaks in Madrid

-

-

Low

14:00

EUR

ECB's Nouy Speaks in Brussels

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2279

1.2411

1.2468

1.2543

1.2600

1.2675

1.2807

GBPUSD

1.5845

1.5914

1.5955

1.5983

1.6024

1.6052

1.6121

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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