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Euro May Look Past CPI Data, NZ Dollar Down on Building Permits Drop

Euro May Look Past CPI Data, NZ Dollar Down on Building Permits Drop

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Look Past October’s Flash EZ CPI on Limited ECB Implications
  • NZ Dollar Down as Building Permits Slump Undercuts RBNZ Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

October’s preliminary Eurozone CPI reading headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations call for a print at 0.4 percent on the benchmark year-on-year inflation rate, marking a slight improvement after the five-year low of 0.3 percent recorded in August and maintained in September. The outcome may not yield a meaningful response from the Euro absent a wild deviation from consensus forecasts considering its limited implications for the near-term trajectory of ECB monetary policy.

Indeed, Mario Draghi and company are still in the implementation phase of a medley of stimulus efforts and will likely want to see how things progress for some time after everything is in place. That means additional easing probably will not materialize at least until next year, putting the central bank on auto-pilot in the interim. We remain short EURUSD.

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade in a move that probably reflected follow-on from a strong set of third-quarter US GDP figures released earlier in the day. The upbeat report reinforced a comparatively hawkish FOMC policy announcement earlier in the week, helping to scatter speculation that the Fed will delay raising interest rates until 2016 having concluded its QE3 stimulus program.

The New Zealand Dollar was weakest on the session after a report showed Building Permits unexpectedly tumbled 12.2 percent in September, marking the largest drop in over two years. The result likely reinforced perceptions that a buoyant housing market will pressure the RBNZ to raise rates in the near-term. The Japanese Yen also traded lower as the US GDP figure lifted Asian equities amid hopes for stronger export demand and undermined the appeal of the safety-linked currency.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (SEP)

-12.2%

1.0%

-0.8%

23:30

JPY

National CPI (YoY) (SEP)

3.2%

3.3%

3.3%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (SEP)

3.0%

3.0%

3.1%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP)

3.0%

2.2%

2.3%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (OCT)

2.5%

2.7%

2.8%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (OCT)

2.5%

2.5%

2.6%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (OCT)

2.1%

2.0%

2.0%

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (SEP)

3.6%

3.6%

3.5%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (SEP)

1.1

1.1

1.1

23:30

JPY

Household Spending (YoY) (SEP)

-5.6%

-4.3%

-4.7%

0:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT)

-2

-1

-1

0:30

AUD

Producer Price Index (QoQ) (3Q)

0.2%

-

-0.1%

0:30

AUD

Producer Price Index (YoY) (3Q)

1.2%

-

2.3%

0:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (SEP)

0.5%

0.4%

0.4%

0:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (SEP)

5.4%

5.3%

5.1%

2:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (SEP)

5.3%

-

5.2%

JPY

BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target

¥270T

¥270T

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (SEP)

-17.2%

-12.5%

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (SEP)

-

8.6%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (SEP)

0.848M

0.845M

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:30

CHF

SNB Earnings (3Q)

-

-

Low

7:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY)

1.2%

0.1%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.9%

1.5%

Medium

8:00

CHF

SNB Releases 3Q Currency Allocation

-

-

Low

8:00

EUR

ECB's Linde Speaks in Barcelona

-

-

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate

12.4%

12.3%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate

11.5%

11.5%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY)

0.4%

0.3%

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI - Core (YoY)

0.8%

0.8%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2418

1.2509

1.2561

1.2600

1.2652

1.2691

1.2782

GBPUSD

1.5825

1.5911

1.5956

1.5997

1.6042

1.6083

1.6169

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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