News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Cryptocurrency sell-off accelerating...sea of red. #btc #bitcoin #rth #ethereum #ltc #xrp @DailyFX Prices via @IGcom https://t.co/nbt2FsI4xp
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/FJJQ8lO3Gz
  • Please join @PaulRobinsonFX at 6:00 EST/10:00 GMT for a webinar where you can learn how to become a better trader in current markets. Register here: https://t.co/XO3SOn8u43 https://t.co/FfZ1IVvbBi
  • UK vaccination data...💪💪💪 @DailyFX https://t.co/N6oM2ppeVV
  • Heads Up:🇬🇷 Unemployment Rate (FEB) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • Heads Up:🇬🇷 Unemployment Rate (JAN) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 15.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/mFZ7MF273J
  • 🇨🇳 FDI (YTD) YoY (APR) Actual: 38.6% Previous: 39.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 91.13%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 65.06%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/7cb0zMMeyv
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 FDI (YTD) YoY (APR) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Actual: 38.6% Previous: 39.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
US Dollar May Rise as Status-Quo FOMC Clashes with Dovish Market Bets

US Dollar May Rise as Status-Quo FOMC Clashes with Dovish Market Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • FX Markets to Look Past European News-Flow, Focus on FOMC Outcome
  • US Dollar to Rise if Static Fed Statement Clashes with Dovish Market Views
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to what is arguably the week’s most significant bit of scheduled event risk: the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement.The rate-setting FOMC committee is expected to deliver a final $15 billion “taper” of asset purchases, ending the QE3 stimulus program. The probability of a surprise extension seems overwhelmingly unlikely. That means the announcement’s market-moving potential will be found in guidance for the timing of the first subsequent rate hike inferred from the accompanying policy statement.

Recent weeks have witnessed a moderation in the post-QE3 Fed tightening outlook as global slowdown fears encouraged speculation that the central bank will want to safe-guard the US recovery from knock-on effects of weakness elsewhere by delaying normalization. Indeed, Fed Funds futures now reveal priced-in expectations of a rate hike no sooner than December of next year, far later than prior bets calling for a move around mid-year.

A change in the FOMC statement reflecting renewed concerns about persistently low inflation would validate this shift, weighing on the US Dollar. Alternatively, a restatement of the status quo would hint the markets’ newfound dovish lean has over-reached, offering lift to the benchmark currency. Considering the Fed’s steady hand through the first-quarter slowdown in US economic performance, the latter scenario seems more probable. We are now short EURUSD and long USDCHF.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP P)

2.7%

2.2%

-1.9%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP P)

0.6%

-0.1%

-3.3%

0:00

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence (OCT)

26.5

-

13.4

0:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (OCT)

37.8

-

37.0

1:45

CNY

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (OCT)

110.9

-

113.2

2:07

CNY

Leading Index (SEP)

99.65

-

99.81

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

CHF

KOF Institute Autumn Economic Forecast

-

-

Medium

9:00

EUR

ECB Publishes 3Q Bank Lending Survey

-

-

Low

9:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (SEP)

0.8B

0.9B

Low

9:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (SEP)

2.1B

2.3B

Low

9:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (SEP)

62.0K

64.2K

Medium

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (SEP)

-

-1.5%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (SEP)

-

0.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (SEP)

2.6%

3.1%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2568

1.2648

1.2691

1.2728

1.2771

1.2808

1.2888

GBPUSD

1.5944

1.6039

1.6085

1.6134

1.618

1.6229

1.6324

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES