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Aussie Dollar Edges Higher on China GDP, Yen May Rise on US Data

Aussie Dollar Edges Higher on China GDP, Yen May Rise on US Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Aussie Dollar Edges Higher on Modestly Better Than Expected Chinese GDP
  • US Dollar, Yen May Rise if Upbeat Home Sales Data Fuels Fed Rates Outlook
  • PlaceEconomic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Australian Dollar narrowly outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts, following a narrowly better-than-expected Chinese GDP report. Output grew at a year-on-year rate of 7.3 percent compared with economists’ expectations of 7.2 percent. The outcome still amounted to the lowest reading since the post-crisis trough in the first quarter of 2009, painting a picture that is hardly encouraging as markets fret about slowing global performance.

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to US news-flow, where September’s Existing Home Sales data is in focus. A print at 5.10 million transactions is expected, marking a 1 percent increase from the prior month. US data outcomes have cautiously improved relative to expectations in recent weeks, which may suggest analysts are underestimating the vigor of the North American behemoth and opening the door for an upside surprise.

Such an outcome may help rebuild Fed rate hike expectations, boosting the US Dollar. Renewed bets on the relatively sooner onset of Fed tightening against a backdrop of swelling global slowdown fears may likewise undermine risk appetite amid fears that US growth will be insufficient to offset downturns in the Eurozone and China. That might put risk-geared currencies under pressure while boosting safety-linked alternatives like the Japanese Yen.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (SEP)

4670

-

4720

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

111.6

-

113.8

0:30

AUD

RBA Releases Minutes from Oct. Meeting

-

-

-

2:00

CNY

GDP SA (QoQ) (3Q)

1.9%

1.8%

2.0%

2:00

CNY

GDP (YoY) (3Q)

7.3%

7.2%

7.5%

2:00

CNY

GDP YTD (YoY) (3Q)

7.4%

7.4%

7.4%

2:00

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP)

8.0%

7.5%

6.9%

2:00

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (SEP)

8.5%

8.4%

8.5%

2:00

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (SEP)

11.6%

11.7%

11.9%

2:00

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (SEP)

12.0%

12.1%

12.1%

2:00

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (SEP)

16.1%

16.3%

16.5%

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (MoM) (SEP)

0.2%

-

0.7%

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (SEP)

4.4%

-

4.2%

4:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (AUG)

-0.4%

-0.2%

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (SEP)

-

-0.1%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance (SFr) (SEP)

2.49B

1.33B

Medium

6:00

CHF

Exports (MoM) (SEP)

-

-0.7%

Low

6:00

CHF

Imports (MoM) (SEP)

-

6.4%

Low

7:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (SEP)

-

3.4%

Low

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (SEP)

9.4B

10.9B

Low

8:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (£) (SEP)

-

1.6B

Low

8:30

GBP

PSNB ex Banking Groups (SEP)

10.1B

11.6B

Low

8:30

GBP

Central Government NCR (SEP)

-

3.1B

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Gov't Debt/GDP Ratio (2013)

-

92.6%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2611

1.2697

1.2749

1.2783

1.2835

1.2869

1.2955

GBPUSD

1.5943

1.6042

1.6104

1.6141

1.6203

1.6240

1.6339

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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