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ECB Commentary in Focus as Markets Yearn for Expanded Stimulus

ECB Commentary in Focus as Markets Yearn for Expanded Stimulus

2014-10-17 05:14:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • ECB Commentary in Focus as Investors Search for Stimulus Expansion Clues
  • Yen Gains on Nikkei Selloff, New Zealand Dollar Spikes Lower on RBNZ Error
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A hefty dose of scheduled commentary from ECB officials headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Of the major engines of global economic growth, the Eurozone is expected to be the largest drag on overall performance. Indeed, a survey of economists polled by Bloomberg predicts GDP growth in the region will underperform the world average by a whopping 1.73 percent. This puts the currency bloc at the heart of the latest bout of risk aversion amid broad-based slowdown fears.

With that in mind, traders will be keen to hear soothing promises of on-coming stimulus expansion from ECB officials. Strongly-worded pledges to do more if the situation continues to deteriorate may weigh on the Euro but offer a boost to risk appetite, pushing high-yielding currencies upward into the week-end. Impressing investors will be a challenge however considering the ECB’s accommodative push has borne little fruit so far. With that in mind, signs of dithering may undermine sentiment, fueling renewed liquidation across the risky asset spectrum.

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move likely reflected haven demand for the safety-linked currency as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index declined, falling as much as 0.7 percent.

The New Zealand Dollar proved weakest on the session, at one point spiking down as much as 0.9 percent. The move followed the appearance of a strongly-worded RBNZ press release warning of a “significant downward adjustment” in the currency. It was swiftly retraced however after the central bank said the document was an accidental re-print of a September statement rather than anything new.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:45

CNY

MNI October Business Indicator (OCT)

51.7

-

52.2

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

EU 25 New Car Registrations (SEP)

-

2.1%

Low

6:45

EUR

ECB's Coeure Speaks in Riga

-

-

Medium

6:45

GBP

BOE’s Haldane Speaks in Kenilworth

-

-

Low

7:30

EUR

ECB's Coeure Holds Press Conference in Riga

-

-

Medium

7:45

EUR

ECB's Constancio Speaks in Frankfurt

-

-

Medium

8:00

EUR

ECB's Nowotny Speaks in Vienna

-

-

Medium

9:00

EUR

ECB’s Weidmann Speaks in Riga

-

-

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (MoM) (AUG)

-

0.0%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (YoY)(AUG)

-

0.4%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurostat 1st GDP Estimate After ESA Adoption

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2509

1.2648

1.2728

1.2787

1.2867

1.2926

1.3065

GBPUSD

1.5732

1.5887

1.5987

1.6042

1.6142

1.6197

1.6352

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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