News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.06% Oil - US Crude: -0.97% Silver: -1.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/H9676jm7CT
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.14% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.17% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/tm1u1cKErl
  • #Market Snapshot $AUDUSD sliding to fresh session-lows on the back of #MorganStanley's suggestion #IronOre prices will fall in Q4 Haven-linked $USD and $JPY pushing back to session-highs after dipping lower in early trade $Gold nudging slightly higher https://t.co/FsT9RIZYvR
  • All eleven S&P 500 sectors ended deeply in the red, with energy (-4.55%), information technology (-3.21%), materials (-2.93%) and real estate (-2.91%) among the worst performers. A whopping 94.7% of the S&P 500 components closed lower. https://t.co/kqP3xPZBJf
  • Rising demand for safety boosted the US Dollar, which climbed for a third day to 94.43 - a two-month high. Strong USD dampened precious metal prices, and put pressure on risk-linked currencies namely AUD, NZD and NOK. https://t.co/ijthZpUdTn
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.57%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 63.44%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/zn9sbgM386
  • While @IG_US Client Sentiment is offering a mixed outlook for the S&P 500 and #Dow Jones, these could be at risk to a turn lower based on multiple bearish technical warning signs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/9kYnq6hH1f https://t.co/YIvXZ76eH1
  • #NOK, #AUD and #NZD are expected to be the most-active #G10 majors versus #USD with one-week implied volatility at 16.33, 12.22 and 12 respectively [delayed] -BBG
  • $DJIA futures carving out a Falling Wedge pattern just above the 200-MA after falling over 8% from the September 3 post-crisis high. $DJI #DowJones Is a recovery in the works? Find out how to trade these patterns and more here: https://www.dailyfx.com/education/technical-analysis-chart-patterns/falling-wedge.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/7dfYFgkpub
  • Copper prices may continue to push higher despite a worrying surge in Covid-19 cases and the lack of progress in Congressional stimulus negotiations. Get your #copper market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/N2OW566nID https://t.co/C33TkPT1vN
Pound May Extend Drop on Claims Data, US Dollar Focused on Fed Outlook

Pound May Extend Drop on Claims Data, US Dollar Focused on Fed Outlook

2014-10-15 02:43:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Pound May Extend Drop if Soft Jobless Claims Data Undercuts BOE Outlook
  • US Dollar Looks to Retail Sales, PPI and Beige Book for Fed Rate Hike Bets
  • Place Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

UK Jobless Claims numbers headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. A 35k drop is expected, marking the smallest drawdown in four months. UK news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-September (according to data from Citigroup). Meanwhile, leading surveys suggest the pace of improvement in the labor market has markedly slowed compared with the first half of the year. Collectively, this opens the door for a downside surprise that may further erode BOE rate hike expectations and compound pressure on the British Pound. We remain short GBPUSD.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to US event risk, where September’s Retail Sales and PPI figures are on tap. Receipts are expected to fall 0.1 percent compared with the prior month, while wholesale inflation is seen holding steady at a year-on-year rate of 1.8 percent. Separately, the Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions.

Realized US economic data outcomes have cautiously improved relative to expectations over recent weeks. More of the same this time around coupled with an absence of particularly negative surprises in the Beige Book may reboot Fed rate hike bets, sending the US Dollar higher. Risk-geared currencies like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars may suffer most in such a scenario as the prospect of stimulus withdrawal amplifies already building global slowdown worries.

The Aussie recovered from overnight lows after September’s Chinese CPI data registered softer than economists expected. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate slowed to 1.6 percent, coming in below forecasts calling for a 1.7 percent result and marking the weakest price growth in close to five years. A soft CPI print that potentially paves the way for an expansion of Chinese stimulus efforts as growth decelerates. That would bode well for Australian exporters, who count on China as their top customer.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf Index (OCT)

94.8

-

94.0

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf Index (YoY) (OCT)

0.9%

-

-4.6%

0:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (SEP)

0.8%

-

-3.5%

0:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (SEP)

2.9%

-

-1.6%

1:30

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

-1.8%

-1.6%

-1.2%

1:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

1.6%

1.7%

2.0%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG F)

-

-1.5%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG F)

-

-2.9%

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (AUG)

-

-0.8%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (SEP F)

-

34.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (SEP F)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (SEP F)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German CPI – EU Harmonized (MoM) (SEP F)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German CPI – EU Harmonized (YoY) (SEP F)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

7:00

EUR

ECB President Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt

-

-

Low

8:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (SEP)

-35.0K

-37.2K

Medium

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (SEP)

2.8%

2.9%

Medium

8:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (AUG)

6.1%

6.2%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/Y) (AUG)

0.7%

0.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/Y) (AUG)

0.8%

0.7%

Low

8:30

GBP

Employment Change (3M/3M) (AUG)

30K

74K

Low

9:00

CHF

Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (OCT)

-

-7.7

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2433

1.2561

1.2609

1.2689

1.2737

1.2817

1.2945

GBPUSD

1.5567

1.5767

1.5835

1.5967

1.6035

1.6167

1.6367

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES