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Pound Looks to UK CPI to Inform BOE Bets, Aussie Up with China Stocks

Pound Looks to UK CPI to Inform BOE Bets, Aussie Up with China Stocks

2014-10-14 03:23:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Fall as Soft Inflation Data Weighs on BOE Rate Hike Bets
  • Aussie, NZ Dollars Outperform on Ebbing HK-Linked China Instability Fears
  • PlaceEconomic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

September’s UK CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to slow to 1.4 percent, marking a five-year low. UK price-growth readings have tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts over recent months (according to data from Citigroup), hinting the realized result may prove softer still. Such an outcome is likely to weigh on the British Pound amid ebbing BOE rate hike bets.

With that in mind, leading survey data offers a mixed perspective. While price pressures in the manufacturing sector looked anemic in September, implied service-sector inflation registered at a four-month high over the same period. Services account for close to 80 percent of the overall economy, so a pickup in price growth there may carry significant implications for nationwide figures and deliver an upside surprise on the CPI print. Needless to say, Sterling is likely to find support in this scenario.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.6 and 0.3 percent respectively against their leading counterparts. The two currencies tracked gains in China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index equity benchmarks. The moves came amid reports that police were clearing protesters’ barricades in Hong Kong, pointing to ebbing instability risk in Australia and New Zealand’s largest export market.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

113.8

-

112.6

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (SEP)

-2.1%

1.0%

1.3%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (SEP)

2.5%

2.4%

2.5%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (SEP)

3.0%

2.9%

3.0%

23:50

JPY

Domestic CGPI (MoM) (SEP)

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.2%

23:50

JPY

Domestic CGPI (YoY) (SEP)

3.5%

3.6%

3.9%

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (SEP)

5

-

7

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (SEP)

1

-

3

2:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (SEP)

65.9%

-

66.9%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (SEP)

-

-1.2%

Low

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (SEP)

-

-0.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

-0.5%

-0.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)

-6.7%

-7.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

-0.1%

-0.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)

-0.3%

-0.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

0.0%

0.1%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)

0.9%

0.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (SEP)

0.2%

0.4%

High

8:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (SEP)

1.4%

1.5%

High

8:30

GBP

Core CPI (YoY) (SEP)

1.8%

1.9%

High

8:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (SEP)

0.3%

0.4%

Low

8:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (SEP)

2.3%

2.4%

Low

8:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (SEP)

2.4%

2.5%

Low

8:30

GBP

ONS House Prices (YoY) (SEP)

-

11.7%

Low

8:30

EUR

Italian General Government Debt (AUG)

-

2168.6B

Low

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (OCT)

0.0

6.9

Medium

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (OCT)

15.0

25.4

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (OCT)

-

14.2

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP)

-1.6%

1.0%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP)

-0.9%

2.2%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2429

1.2570

1.2661

1.2711

1.2802

1.2852

1.2993

GBPUSD

1.5936

1.6012

1.6048

1.6088

1.6124

1.6164

1.6240

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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