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Aussie Dollar Looking Beyond Status-Quo RBA Policy Announcement

Aussie Dollar Looking Beyond Status-Quo RBA Policy Announcement

2014-10-07 04:07:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Aussie Dollar Flat as RBA Keeps Rate Setting Unchanged as Expected
  • Swiss Franc Unlikely to Find Volatility in September’s Inflation Report
  • Familiar Sentiments from Fed Officials May Do Little for the US Dollar

The Australian Dollar was little-changed after the Reserve Bank of Australia opted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50 percent, as expected. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said monetary policy is “appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.” The central bank chief added the now-familiar refrain calling a period of stability in interest rates the “most prudent course” for the time being.

The US Dollar traded broadly higher, adding as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move did not appear linked to a discrete catalyst. Rather, the advance was likely corrective after the benchmark unit produced the largest daily drop in close to a year in the preceding 24 hours. That selloff itself appeared reactionary following a dramatic rally on Friday last week following the better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls print.

September’s Swiss CPI report headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register a flat result (0.0 percent), marking a slowdown from the 0.1 percent increase recorded in August. Such an outcome would fall in line with the 12-month trend average, offering little impetus for a reconsideration of investors’ SNB policy expectations and thereby limiting the release’s impact on the Swiss Franc.

Meanwhile, Augusts’ UK Industrial Production figures are due to show that output growth accelerated to a year-on-year pace of 2.6 percent, marking a four-month high. Leading survey data warns that that the pace of manufacturing-sector activity growth slowed both in the period in question as well as in the following month. Furthermore, UK economic news-flow has broadly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks (according to data from Citigroup). On balance, that opens the door for a downside surprise that may erode BOE rate hike expectations and weigh on the British Pound.

Later in the day, “Fed-speak” takes center stage as traders look for comments from Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota and New York Fed President Bill Dudley to cross the wires. Both policymakers currently sit on the rate-setting FOMC committee, adding weight to their remarks. The two Fed officials have clearly telegraphed their biases in past remarks however. Mr Korcherlakota leans on the dovish side of the spectrum while Mr Dudley is broadly in line with the Yellen-led consensus. This means that absent a bombshell remark from either policymaker, their commentary is unlikely to materially move the greenback.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

NZIER Business Opinion Survey (3Q)

19

-

32

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

112.6

-

113.7

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Construction Index (SEP)

59.1

-

55.0

23:50

JPY

Offical Reserve Assets ($) (SEP)

1264.4B

-

1278.0B

3:30

AUD

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (AUG P)

104.0

105.4

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (AUG P)

108.6

109.9

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG)

-1.5%

1.9%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG)

-0.5%

2.5%

Medium

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) (SEP)

457.5B

453.8B

Low

7:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (SEP)

0.2%

0.0%

High

7:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

0.0%

0.1%

High

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (SEP)

-0.1%

0.1%

Medium

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (SEP)

0.3%

-0.2%

Medium

8:30

GBP

BOE Credit Conditions Survey

-

-

Low

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (AUG)

0.1%

0.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (AUG)

3.4%

2.2%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG)

0.0%

0.5%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG)

2.6%

1.7%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2269

1.2440

1.2548

1.2611

1.2719

1.2782

1.2953

GBPUSD

1.5732

1.5887

1.5986

1.6042

1.6141

1.6197

1.6352

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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