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US Dollar Soars Before Key Data, Pound May Fall on Soft PMI

US Dollar Soars Before Key Data, Pound May Fall on Soft PMI

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Outperforms as Markets Prepare for Key US Economic News-Flow
  • British Pound to Continue Lower if PMI Data Undermines BOE Policy Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar outperformed against its leading counterparts in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average to set a new four-year high. The move may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the week’s first batch of high-profile US economic data releases. September’s ISM Manufacturing and ADP Employment figures are on tap.

In trend terms, US economic news-flow has been gradually (if unevenly) improving relative to consensus forecasts since early April. That has fueled speculation that the Fed may opt for a relatively short time gap between the end of QE3 later this month and the first subsequent interest rate hike, building yield-based support for the greenback.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars bore the brunt of the selloff, falling as much as 0.7 and 0.3 percent respectively. The outsized losses may have reflected the amplifying effects of risk aversion on the sentiment-sensitive currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell 0.1 percent after hitting a four-month low yesterday. We remain short AUDUSD.

September’s UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines the calendar in European hours. A modest acceleration in the pace of factory-sector activity is expected, with the index inching up to 52.7 having registered at a 14-month low of 52.5 in the prior month. UK economic data has turned softer relative to consensus forecasts over the past three weeks, leading front-end Gilt yields lower to signal ebbing BOE tightening bets. More of the same this time around is likely to weigh on the British Pound and we remain short GBPUSD.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Mfg Index (SEP)

46.5

-

47.3

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large All Industry Capex (3Q)

8.6%

7.0%

7.4%

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index (3Q)

0

-1

2

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (3Q)

13

10

12

23:50

JPY

Tankan Non-Mfg Index (3Q)

13

17

19

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Mfg Outlook (3Q)

13

13

15

23:50

JPY

Tankan Non-Mfg Outlook (3Q)

14

18

19

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Mfg Outlook (3Q)

0

0

3

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Mfg Index (3Q)

-1

-2

1

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook (3Q)

-1

-2

0

0:00

AUD

RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (SEP)

0.1%

-

1.1%

1:00

CNY

China Mfg PMI (SEP)

51.1

51.0

51.1

1:30

AUD

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

0.1%

0.4%

0.4%

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Japan Mfg PMI (SEP F)

51.7

-

51.7

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (SEP)

-

-5.0%

6:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index (SEP)

-

91.7

6:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index (YoY) (SEP)

-

-11.5%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:30

CHF

procure.ch Mfg PMI (SEP)

52.0

52.9

Low

7:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (SEP)

49.5

49.8

Low

7:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (SEP F)

48.8

48.8

Low

7:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (SEP F)

50.3

50.3

Low

8:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (SEP F)

50.5

50.5

Low

8:30

GBP

Markit UK Mfg PMI s.a. (SEP)

52.7

52.5

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2373

1.2504

1.2567

1.2635

1.2698

1.2766

1.2897

GBPUSD

1.5982

1.6102

1.6158

1.6222

1.6278

1.6342

1.6462

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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