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Euro May Be More Responsive to Positive vs. Negative Inflation Data

Euro May Be More Responsive to Positive vs. Negative Inflation Data

2014-09-30 06:29:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Euro to be More Sensitive to Positive vs. Negative Eurozone CPI Outcome
  • Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise Alongside S&P 500 Futures as Risk Aversion Fades
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary set of September’s Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 0.3 percent, matching the five-year low recorded in the prior month.

While leading survey suggested that both selling prices and input costs weakened further in September, it ought to be noted that realized inflation-tracking data outcomes have notably improved relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year (according to data from Citigroup). Though readings have tended to fall short of expectations, the margin of disappointment has steadily narrowed since January.

This suggests that the markets may be nearing a point where forecasters are sufficiently acclimated to the extent of Eurozone disinflation. In such an environment, the ability of soft price-growth figures to underperform and thereby inspire Euro selling pressure is diminished. The aggressive build in speculative net-short EUR exposure and the already realized arrival of a significant ECB stimulus effort compounds this.

On balance, this means that the single currency may prove relatively unresponsive to an in-line or even somewhat softer CPI print. On the contrary, a better-than-expected read could trigger liquidation of Euro shorts, fueling a swift corrective bounce.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 and 0.7 percent respectively against their leading counterparts. The move tracked an overnight advance in S&P 500 index futures, hinting a recovery in risk appetite following the shakeout at the start of the trading week was the catalyst behind price action.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (AUG)

0.0%

0.0%

-1.7%

23:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP)

-1

0

1

23:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

113.7

-

112.9

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (AUG)

3.5%

3.8%

3.8%

23:30

JPY

Job-to-Applicant Ratio (AUG)

1.1

1.1

1.1

23:30

JPY

Household Spending (YoY) (AUG)

-4.7%

-3.6%

-5.9%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

1.9%

0.5%

-0.5%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (AUG)

1.2%

0.1%

0.6%

23:50

JPY

Large Retailers' Sales (AUG)

1.6%

0.0%

-0.6%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG P)

-1.5%

0.2%

0.4%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG P)

-2.9%

-1.1%

-0.7%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)

1.9%

0.5%

-0.5%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (SEP)

37.0

-

36.6

0:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (SEP)

13.4

-

24.4

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (AUG)

0.4%

0.5%

0.4%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (AUG)

5.1%

5.2%

5.1%

1:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (AUG)

1.4%

0.9%

2.4%

1:31

CNY

Leading Index (AUG)

100.09

-

100.20

1:45

CNY

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (SEP F)

50.2

50.5

50.5

2:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (AUG)

5.2%

-

5.3%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (AUG)

-6.7%

-

-1.7%

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (SEP)

47.6

-

47.7

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (AUG)

-12.5%

-14.2%

-14.1%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (AUG)

0.845M

0.837M

0.839M

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (AUG)

8.6%

-

24.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG)

0.1% (A)

1.0%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG)

2.5% (A)

-1.1%

Medium

6:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

-0.2% (A)

0.8%

Low

6:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)

9.4% (A)

11.0%

Low

7:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (SEP)

99.0

99.5

Low

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (SEP)

-2K

2K

Medium

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (SEP)

6.7%

6.7%

Medium

8:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate (AUG P)

12.6%

12.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) (2Q F)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

8:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) (2Q F)

3.2%

3.2%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Current Account (£) (2Q)

-18.0B

-18.5B

Low

8:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (QoQ) (2Q F)

-

5.0%

Low

8:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (YoY) (2Q F)

-

10.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (JUL)

0.3%

0.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (JUL)

1.0%

1.0%

Low

8:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (SEP)

-

47

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (AUG)

11.5%

11.5%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (SEP)

0.3%

0.4%

High

9:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI - Core (YoY) (SEP A)

0.9%

0.9%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2586

1.2637

1.2661

1.2688

1.2712

1.2739

1.2790

GBPUSD

1.6125

1.6184

1.6213

1.6243

1.6272

1.6302

1.6361

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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