Talking Points:
- Euro May Prove Most Responsive to Better-Than-Expected Sep. PMI Results
- Aussie Dollar Outperformed Following Upbeat Chinese PMI Print Overnight
- NZ Dollar Sold on Fading RBNZ Rate Hike Bets, Dairy Exports Expectations
September’s preliminary set of Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The regional composite index is expected to show that the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector growth remained unchanged this time around after sliding to an eight-month low in August. A print in line or worse than expected seems unlikely to generate significant Euro volatility.
The ECB has already introduced an aggressive array of stimulus easing measures, meaning further evidence speaking to weakness in the region is unlikely to materially upset the established status quo and spur capital flows. On the other hand, anoteworthy improvement may fuel upside volatility amid an unwinding of formidably built-up speculative short positions.
The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI data from HSBC that showed the pace of growth in factory-sector activity unexpectedly accelerated in September. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and traders often interpret signs of improvement there as positive for the latter country’s business cycle, which in turn underpins supportive RBA policy bets.
The New Zealand Dollar proved weakest on the session, falling as much as 0.2 percent against the majors. The move tracked a drop in New Zealand’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, pointing to eroding RBNZ rate hike expectations as the catalyst behind the selloff. Downward pressure may have been compounded by a report from Rabobank that showed 47 percent of polled dairy farmers expected business performance to deteriorate in the coming 12 months. Dairy is New Zealand’s largest export sector and a drop-off there bodes ill for the economy as a whole, which may in turn limit the scope of future monetary tightening.
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Asia Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
23:30 |
AUD |
ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf |
112.9 |
- |
111.3 |
|
1:45 |
CNY |
HSBC PMI Manufacturing (SEP P) |
50.5 |
50.0 |
50.2 |
European Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP/ACT |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
France GDP (QoQ) (2Q F) |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Medium |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French GDP (YoY) (2Q F) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Medium |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Mfg Confidence Indicator (SEP) |
96 |
96 |
Low |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Business Confidence (SEP) |
91 |
91 |
Low |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Own-Company Prod Outlook (SEP) |
-5 |
-7 |
Low |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Production Outlook Indicator (SEP) |
-22 |
-20 |
Low |
|
7:00 |
EUR |
Markit France Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) |
47.0 |
46.9 |
Medium |
|
7:00 |
EUR |
Markit France Services PMI (SEP P) |
50.1 |
50.3 |
Medium |
|
7:00 |
EUR |
Markit France Composite PMI (SEP P) |
49.4 |
49.5 |
Medium |
|
7:30 |
EUR |
Markit German PMI Manufacturing (SEP P) |
51.2 |
51.4 |
High |
|
7:30 |
EUR |
Markit German PMI Services (SEP P) |
54.6 |
54.9 |
High |
|
7:30 |
EUR |
Markit German PMI Composite (SEP P) |
53.5 |
53.7 |
High |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Markit Eurozone PMI Services (SEP P) |
53.0 |
53.1 |
High |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Markit Eurozone PMI Manufacturing (SEP P) |
50.6 |
50.7 |
High |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Markit Eurozone PMI Composite (SEP P) |
52.5 |
52.5 |
High |
|
8:30 |
BBA Loans for House Purchase (AUG) |
42913 |
42792 |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (AUG) |
6.0B |
-9.7B |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
PSNB (£) (AUG) |
10.5B |
-1.1B |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
PSNB - Central Gov't NCR (£) (AUG) |
- |
-2.4B |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
PSNB ex Interventions (£) (AUG) |
11.8B |
0.2B |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
Supp 3 |
Supp 2 |
Supp 1 |
Pivot Point |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
Res 3 |
|
1.2740 |
1.2792 |
1.2821 |
1.2844 |
1.2873 |
1.2896 |
1.2948 |
|
|
1.6174 |
1.6256 |
1.6309 |
1.6338 |
1.6391 |
1.6420 |
1.6502 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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