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Commodity Dollars Broadly Decline as Risk Appetite Comes Undone

Commodity Dollars Broadly Decline as Risk Appetite Comes Undone

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Commodity Dollars Face Heavy Selling Pressure as Risk Appetite Unravels
  • S&P 500 Futures Point Toward Continued Risk Aversion in the Cards Ahead
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in Asian trade following the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. While Governor Graeme Wheeler said that the bank expects “some further policy tightening will be necessary” in the future after the current wait-and-see period, he likewise issued a stern warning on the Kiwi. The central bank chief argued that the New Zealand unit’s current level is “unjustified and unsustainable” and projected a further “significant depreciation” down the road.

The Australian Dollar spiked briefly higher after an impressive set of Employment figures. The report showed the economy added a net 121,000 jobs in August, dwarfing expectations for a 15,000 increase. The unemployment rate also declined more than analysts projected, sliding to 6.1 percent. The Aussie’s gains proved short-lived however, with the currency shedding most of its post-data gains within just a few hours. We interpreted the currency’s inability to meaningfully advance following strongly supportive data as reinforcing a bearish technical break traced out over the preceding 24 hours and entered short AUDUSD.

Interestingly, the Canadian Dollar followed its commodity-bloc counterparts lower. The move tracked an overnight slide in S&P 500 futures, pointing to broader risk aversion as the underlying force behind strong selling pressure in at the upper end of the yield spectrum in the G10 FX space. This core catalyst may explain why the Kiwi was so stung by seemingly familiar jaw-boning from the RBNZ as well as why the Aussie was unable to truly capitalize on impressive news-flow. More of the same seems likely ahead as contracts tracking the benchmark US equity indexes accelerate downward ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

3.50%

3.50%

3.50%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (AUG)

40%

47%

48%

23:50

JPY

BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (3Q)

11.1

-

-14.6

23:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (3Q)

12.7

-

-13.9

1:00

AUD

Consumer Inflation Expectations (SEP)

3.5%

-

3.1%

1:30

CNY

PPI (YoY) (AUG)

-1.2%

-1.1%

-0.9%

1:30

CNY

CPI (YoY) (AUG)

2.0%

2.2%

2.3%

1:30

AUD

Employment Change (AUG)

121.0K

15.0K

-4.1K

1:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (AUG)

14300

-

15.4K

1:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (AUG)

106.7K

-

-19.5K

1:30

AUD

Participation Rate (AUG)

65.2%

64.8%

64.9%

1:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (AUG)

6.1%

6.3%

6.4%

2:00

JPY

Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (AUG)

6.0%

-

6.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (AUG F)

0.0% (A)

0.0%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (AUG F)

0.8% (A)

0.8%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (AUG F)

0.0% (A)

0.0%

Low

6:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (AUG F)

0.8% (A)

0.8%

Low

8:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Monthly Report

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2763

1.2842

1.2880

1.2921

1.2959

1.3000

1.3079

GBPUSD

1.5808

1.5986

1.6098

1.6164

1.6276

1.6342

1.6520

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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