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British Pound May Bounce as Focus Reverts to BOE Rate Hike Bets

British Pound May Bounce as Focus Reverts to BOE Rate Hike Bets

2014-09-09 05:07:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Recover as Focus Returns to BOE Rate Hike Speculation
  • US Dollar Extends Advance to Hit New 2014 High on Firming Fed Outlook
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The British Pound remains in focus in European hours after yesterday’s dramatic selloff brought the currency to the lowest level in 10 months. The plunge was triggered by Scottish Independence referendum jitters after a poll released over the weekend showed those intending to vote in favor of seceding from the UK outnumbered those favoring the status quo for the first time.

The Scottish issue will not find clear-cut resolution until the referendum is held next week (September 18) and a result is evident. Having priced in a greater degree of secession risk, the markets may now find themselves without sufficiently novel news-flow to make the situation appear markedly worse at the margin. That hints that the ability of Scotland-linked worries to continue driving Sterling is limited in the near term.

In the meantime, monetary policy considerations are set to make their return to the spotlight as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney takes to the wires. The central bank chief is due to address the Trades Union Congress in Liverpool today. If his remarks reinforce the emerging hawkish shift in policymakers’ thinking, swelling rate hike speculation may offer a lifeline to the beleaguered UK unit.

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade after recording the largest daily rally in 15 months in the previous session. The greenback added as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts, putting in a new high for the year. The advance tracked a pickup in US Treasury bond yields, pointing to a firming Fed policy outlook as the catalyst.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (AUG)

-1.2%

-

2.5%

22:45

NZD

Card Spending Total (MoM) (AUG)

0.3%

-

-0.2%

22:45

NZD

Card Spending Retail (MoM) (AUG)

0.5%

0.6%

0.1%

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (AUG)

1.3%

0.3%

-0.3%

23:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Conf (Weekly)

113.3

-

112.6

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JUL)

0.0%

0.2%

0.0%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (AUG)

3.0%

2.9%

3.0%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (AUG)

2.4%

2.4%

2.5%

23:50

JPY

BOJ Releases Minutes from Aug Meeting

-

-

-

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (AUG)

4

-

8

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (AUG)

8

-

10

1:30

AUD

Investment Lending (JUL)

6.8%

-

0.1%

1:30

AUD

Value of Loans (MoM) (JUL)

0.0%

-

1.7%

1:30

AUD

Home Loans (JUL)

0.3%

1.0%

0.1%

5:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence Index (AUG)

41.2

42.3

41.5

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (AUG P)

-

37.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL)

0.2%

0.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL)

1.3%

1.2%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUL)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUL)

2.2%

1.9%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£, m) (JUL)

-9100

-9413

Low

8:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (£, m) (JUL)

-2300

-2459

Low

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£, m) (JUL)

-3600

-3841

Low

10:45

GBP

BOE Governor Carney Speaks in Liverpool

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2755

1.2834

1.2864

1.2913

1.2943

1.2992

1.3071

GBPUSD

1.5877

1.6011

1.6058

1.6145

1.6192

1.6279

1.6413

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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