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British Pound Sinks as Scottish Independence Poll Fuels Capital Flight

British Pound Sinks as Scottish Independence Poll Fuels Capital Flight

2014-09-08 06:24:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound Sinks as Scottish Independence Poll Sets Off Capital Flight
  • Swiss Franc May Decline if August Inflation Data Falls Short of Forecasts
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The British Pound tumbled against all of its major counterparts to start the trading week, losing as much as 0.9 percent on average. The move reflected capital flight amid uncertainty linked to the outcome of next week’s Scottish Independence referendum. A YouGov/Sunday Times poll published over the weekend showed those intending to vote in favor of seceding from the UK outnumbered those favoring the status quo for the first time, albeit by a narrow margin (47% for independence, 45% against, 7% undecided).

Looking ahead, a quiet economic in European trading hours offers little by way of market-moving event risk. Augusts’ Swiss CPI figures may draw attention however as persistent Euro weakness pushes EURCHF toward the SNB’s target floor of 1.20. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to print flat, unchanged from the prior month. Leading survey data hints at a sharp slowdown in price growth however, opening the door for a downside surprise. That may fuel speculation that the SNB will need to expand stimulus, weighing on the Franc. We remain long USDCHF.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Mfg Activity Volume (QoQ) (2Q)

-0.7%

-

0.5%

22:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity (2Q)

-1.9%

-

0.6%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥)

416.7B

444.2B

-399.1B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥)

99.3B

180.1B

125.6B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥)

-828.1B

-725.9B

-537.1B

23:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ) (2Q F)

-1.8%

-1.8%

-1.7%

23:50

JPY

GDP Annualized (2Q F)

-7.1%

-7.0%

-6.8%

23:50

JPY

Nominal GDP (QoQ) (2Q F)

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.1%

23:50

JPY

GDP Deflator (YoY) (2Q F)

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

23:50

JPY

GDP Consumer Spending (QoQ) (2Q F)

-5.3%

-5.0%

-5.2%

23:50

JPY

GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (2Q F)

-5.1%

-3.4%

-2.5%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (AUG)

2.3%

-

2.2%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (AUG)

2.3%

-

2.3%

1:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (AUG)

1.8%

-

0.5%

2:00

CNY

Exports (YoY) (AUG)

9.4%

9.0%

14.5%

2:00

CNY

Imports (YoY) (AUG)

-2.4%

3.0%

-1.6%

2:00

CNY

Trade Balance (AUG)

$49.83B

$40.00B

$47.30B

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (AUG)

-11.23%

-

-13.95%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (AUG)

47.4

51.0

51.3

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (AUG)

50.4

-

51.5

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (AUG)

3.0% (A)

2.9%

Medium

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUG)

3.2% (A)

3.2%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Labor Costs (YoY) (2Q)

1.7% (A)

0.5%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Labor Costs (QoQ) (2Q)

0.7% (A)

-0.1%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (JUL)

23.4B (A)

16.6B

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Current Account (€)(JUL)

21.7B (A)

17.2B

Low

6:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

-1.8% (A)

4.5%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

4.7% (A)

0.9%

Low

7:00

EUR

Halifax House Prices (MoM) (AUG)

0.3%

1.4%

Low

7:00

EUR

Halifax House Prices (3M/Y) (AUG)

10.0%

10.2%

Low

7:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

-0.1%

-0.4%

Medium

7:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG)

-

0.0%

Low

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG)

-

-0.1%

Low

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JUL)

-

3.4%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Lloyds Employment Confidence (AUG)

-

6

Low

8:30

EUR

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (SEP)

1.4

2.7

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2822

1.2888

1.2919

1.2954

1.2985

1.3020

1.3086

GBPUSD

1.6203

1.6260

1.6293

1.6317

1.6350

1.6374

1.6431

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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