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Yen Jumps as Japan Reshuffles Cabinet, Pound Eyeing PMI Data

Yen Jumps as Japan Reshuffles Cabinet, Pound Eyeing PMI Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound Outlook Clouded Before Augusts’ Services PMI Data Release
  • US Dollar Looks for Added Fuel in Factory Orders Report, Fed Beige Book
  • Aussie Dollar Corrects Higher, Yen Up as Japan PM Abe Reshuffles Cabinet

The Australian Dollar advanced in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent against its leading counterparts. The move appeared to reflect corrective price action after yesterday’s sharp decline rather than a discrete catalyst. Indeed, the release of Australian second-quarter GDP and Chinese PMI figures sparked a bit of volatility but offered little by way of directional conviction. The Yen likewise advanced after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a re-shuffle of his cabinet. The announcement sent the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index lower in afternoon trade, bolstering demand for the safe-haven Japanese unit.

Augusts’ UK Services PMI reading headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The index is expected to tick lower to 58.5 from an eight-month high at 59.1 recorded in the prior month. UK economic news-flow has increasingly improved relative to consensus forecasts in recent weeks, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such an outcome may boost BOE interest rate hike speculation, driving the British Pound higher.

It ought to be noted that Manufacturing and Construction PMI indexes produced mixed results earlier in the week however: Sterling advanced following a soft print on the former and tumbled following a strong outcome on the latter. Such counter-intuitive performance may have reflected thin trading conditions linked to the US markets being shuttered for the Labor Day holiday to start the week and liquidity’s subsequent return. In any case, attempting to construct a linear narrative on what may occur when today’s report is unveiled does not seem prudent.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts back to US monetary policy considerations. July’s Factory Orders data is due to show an 11 percent surge, marking the largest monthly increase on record, while the Federal Reserve is set to release its Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions. The results may fuel continued US Dollar gains if the former outcome continues US data’s recent streak of outperformance while the latter reinforces growth acceleration bets, driving rate hike speculation.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (2Q)

1.0%

0.0%

15.0%

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

-1.6%

-2.0%

-1.9%

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Service Index (AUG)

49.4

-

49.3

1:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (AUG)

54.4

-

54.2

1:30

AUD

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)

3.1%

3.0%

3.4%

1:30

AUD

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)

0.5%

0.4%

1.1%

1:35

JPY

Markit Services PMI (AUG)

49.9

-

50.4

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Composite PMI (AUG)

50.8

-

50.2

1:45

CNY

HSBC China Composite PMI (AUG)

52.8

-

51.6

1:45

CNY

HSBC China Services PMI (AUG)

54.1

-

50.0

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (AUG)

-

53.1

Low

7:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (AUG)

52.0

52.8

Low

7:50

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (AUG F)

50.0

50.0

Low

7:50

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (AUG F)

51.1

51.1

Low

7:55

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (AUG F)

56.4

56.4

Medium

7:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (AUG F)

54.9

54.9

Medium

8:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (AUG F)

53.5

53.5

Medium

8:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (AUG F)

52.8

52.8

Medium

8:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (AUG)

-

58.8

Medium

8:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (AUG)

58.5

59.1

Medium

8:30

GBP

Official Reserves (Changes) (AUG)

-

-$616M

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)

-0.3%

0.4%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)

0.9%

2.4%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3073

1.3100

1.3117

1.3127

1.3144

1.3154

1.3181

GBPUSD

1.6224

1.6371

1.6420

1.6518

1.6567

1.6665

1.6812

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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