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Euro Remains Vulnerable After Sinking  to One-Year Low vs. US Dollar

Euro Remains Vulnerable After Sinking to One-Year Low vs. US Dollar

2014-09-01 03:57:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • New Zealand Dollar Gains as Terms of Trade Data Boost RBNZ Policy Bets
  • Euro May Continue Lower if German GDP, EZ PMI Revisions Disappoint
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The New Zealand Dollar narrowly outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed an unexpectedly upbeat Terms of Trade report. The ratio of export vs. import prices rose 0.3 percent in the second quarter, topping bets calling for a 3.5 percent decline. The improvement in the island nation’s external position appeared to bolster RBNZ monetary policy bets, with the Kiwi rising alongside New Zealand’s benchmark 10-year bond yield.

Looking ahead, a busy European data docket is headlined by the final revisions of second-quarter German GDP data and Augusts’ Eurozone Manufacturing PMI print. The former release is expected to confirm that output in the Euro area’s top economy shrank 0.2 percent in the three months through June, marking the first contraction in over a year. The latter is seen matching preliminary estimates showing manufacturing- and service-sector activity in the currency bloc grew at the slowest pace in 13 months.

Eurozone economic news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year. Indeed, data from Citigroup suggests realized outcomes are underperforming economists’ bets by the widest margin since June 2013 as of last week. That suggests analysts continue to underestimate the degree of economic slowdown in the region, opening the door for additional downside surprises. Disappointing results on today’s releases may help stoke speculation about a forthcoming expansion of ECB stimulus at this week’s policy meeting, sending the Euro lower. We remain short EURUSD.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q)

0.3%

-3.5%

1.8%

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Mfg Index (AUG)

47.3

-

50.7

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (2Q)

3.0%

4.1%

7.4%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending excl Software (2Q)

1.9%

1.0%

8.3%

23:50

JPY

Company Profits (2Q)

4.5%

-

20.2%

23:50

JPY

Company Sales (2Q)

1.1%

-

5.6%

0:00

AUD

RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (AUG)

1.1%

-

1.6%

0:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (AUG)

0.0%

-

0.2%

0:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (AUG)

2.5%

-

2.6%

1:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

51.1

51.3

51.7

1:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q)

-6.9%

-2.0%

2.0%

1:30

AUD

Inventories (QoQ) (2Q)

0.8%

0.3%

-1.7%

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (AUG F)

52.2

-

52.4

1:45

CNY

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (AUG F)

50.2

50.5

50.3

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG)

-

0.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (2Q F)

-0.2%

-0.2%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German GDP w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q F)

1.2%

1.2%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German GDP n.s.a. (YoY) (2Q F)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Private Consumption (QoQ) (2Q)

0.2%

0.7%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Government Spending (QoQ) (2Q)

0.3%

0.4%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Capital Investment (QoQ) (2Q)

-1.3%

3.2%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Construction Investment (QoQ) (2Q)

-3.2%

3.6%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Domestic Demand (QoQ) (2Q)

-

1.9%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Exports (QoQ) (2Q)

0.2%

0.2%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Imports (QoQ) (2Q)

0.5%

2.2%

Low

6:30

AUD

Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (AUG)

-

-12.1%

Low

6:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (AUG)

-

92.1

Low

7:30

CHF

procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

53.7

54.3

Medium

7:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (AUG)

51

51.9

Low

7:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (AUG F)

46.5

46.5

Low

7:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (AUG F)

52.0

52.0

Medium

8:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (AUG F)

50.8

50.8

Medium

8:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (JUL)

0.6B

0.4B

Low

8:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL)

2.0B

2.1B

Low

8:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (JUL)

66.0K

67.2K

Medium

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUL)

-

0.1%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUL)

-

-0.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUL)

4.3%

4.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

Markit Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

55.1

55.4

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3025

1.3089

1.3111

1.3153

1.3175

1.3217

1.3281

GBPUSD

1.6490

1.6541

1.6569

1.6592

1.6620

1.6643

1.6694

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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