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Euro Looking for a Lifeline in Inflation Data as ECB Meeting Looms

Euro Looking for a Lifeline in Inflation Data as ECB Meeting Looms

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro Looking for a Lifeline in Eurozone CPI Report Ahead of ECB Meeting
  • Australian, NZ Dollars Move Lower as Risk Appetite Unravels in Asian Trade
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Augusts’ preliminary Eurozone CPI reading headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to edge lower to 0.3 percent, marking the lowest level since October 2009.

In overall terms, price-growth data from the single currency area has cautiously improved relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year, opening the door for an upside surprise. A better-than-expected reading may chip away at speculation about an expansion of ECB stimulus measures at next week’s monetary policy meeting, sending the Euro higher.

Leading survey data disagrees however, pointing to the largest drop in output prices in there months in August. With that said, the extent of recent selling and seemingly stretched speculative net-short speculative positioning suggests the risk of outsized volatility may be asymmetrically greater on the upside than otherwise. For what it’s worth, technical positioning hints a EURUSD bounce may be ahead.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade as risk appetite unraveled, weighing on the sentiment-linked high yielders. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell 0.2 percent and is on pace to register its first monthly drop since April.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (JUL)

0.1%

1.0%

3.5%

23:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (AUG)

0.1%

-

0.1%

23:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (AUG)

5.5%

-

5.8%

23:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG)

1

-1

-2

23:30

JPY

National CPI (YoY) (JUL)

3.4%

3.4%

3.6%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)

3.3%

3.3%

3.3%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (AUG)

2.8%

2.7%

2.8%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG)

2.7%

2.7%

2.8%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (JUL)

3.8%

3.7%

3.7%

23:30

JPY

Household Spending (YoY) (JUL)

-5.9%

-2.9%

-3.0%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL)

1.1

1.1

1.1

23:50

JPY

Large Retailers' Sales (JUL)

-0.6%

-0.8%

-1.8%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL)

1.95%

-

2.30%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL)

0.5%

-0.2%

-0.6%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

-0.5%

0.3%

0.5%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P)

0.2%

1.0%

-3.4%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P)

-0.9%

-0.1%

3.1%

1:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG)

36.6

-

45.1

1:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (AUG)

24.4

-

39.7

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUL)

0.4%

0.5%

0.7%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL)

5.1%

5.1%

5.0%

3:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUL)

5.3%

-

5.4%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUL)

-1.7%

-

6.6%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL)

-10.5%

-9.5%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (JUL)

0.871M

0.883M

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL)

-

9.3%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

GBP

Nationwide House Px (MoM) (AUG)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

6:00

GBP

Nationwide House Px (YoY) (AUG)

10.2%

10.6%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)

0.1%

1.0%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)

1.5%

0.4%

Medium

7:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (AUG)

97.8

98.1

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate (JUL P)

12.3%

12.3%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (2Q)

12.5%

12.7%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL)

11.5%

11.5%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (AUG)

0.3%

0.4%

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (AUG P)

0.8%

0.8%

High

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI NIC incl. tobacco (MoM) (AUG P)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI NIC incl. tobacco (YoY) (AUG P)

-0.1%

0.1%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2Q F)

-0.2%

-0.2%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q F)

-0.3%

-0.3%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3066

1.3127

1.3154

1.3188

1.3215

1.3249

1.3310

GBPUSD

1.6495

1.6542

1.6564

1.6589

1.6611

1.6636

1.6683

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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