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US Dollar Looks to Home Sales Data to Build on Yellen-Inspired Gains

US Dollar Looks to Home Sales Data to Build on Yellen-Inspired Gains

2014-08-25 03:29:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Home Sales Data May Help Dollar May Build on Yellen-Inspired Gains
  • Euro May Fall as German IFO Survey Boosts ECB Stimulus Expansion Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade as Asian markets took their turn to respond to supportive remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium last week. The greenback added as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts, setting a six-month high.

The expected time gap between October’s end of “QE3” asset purchases and the first Fed interest rate hike may shrink further on the back of supportive US economic data. July’s New Home Sales report headlines the docket to start the week, with a print at 429,000 expected compared with 406,000 in the prior month.

US economic news-flow has markedly improved since early April. Indeed, a Citigroup index measuring realized outcomes relative to consensus forecasts now shows data results are outperforming expectations by the widest margin in six months. This hints that analysts are underestimating the vigor of the US economy, opening the door for an upside surprise that fuels continued gains in the US unit.

Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence is in the spotlight in European hours. The headline Business Climate gauge is expected to tick lower to 107.00 in Augusts’ report, marking the lowest level in 13 months. A soft print may stoke speculation about an expansion of ECB stimulus efforts, particularly after dovish comments from the central bank’s President Mario Draghi last week. Needless to say, such a turn of events bodes ill for the Euro and we remain short EURUSD.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

No Data

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

EUR

German IFO - Business Climate (AUG)

107.0

108.0

Medium

8:00

EUR

German IFO - Current Assessment (AUG)

112.0

112.9

Medium

8:00

EUR

German IFO - Expectations (AUG)

102.1

103.4

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3101

1.3177

1.3210

1.3253

1.3286

1.3329

1.3405

GBPUSD

1.6509

1.6543

1.6557

1.6577

1.6591

1.6611

1.6645

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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