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British Pound May Be Squeezed Higher After BOE Meeting Minutes

British Pound May Be Squeezed Higher After BOE Meeting Minutes

2014-08-20 04:56:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound Volatility Risk Skewed to the Upside Before August BOE Minutes
  • US Dollar Outperformed Overnight as Upbeat Data Fueled Fed Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Data Results Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The release of minutes from Augusts’ Bank of England policy meeting headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Traders will comb the document for clues helping to reconcile the apparent disparity in guidance presented in the quarterly inflation report and comments from Governor Mark Carney earlier in the week. The central bank chief appears to be somewhat more hawkish than the tone offered in the Bank’s official communications. The operative question now is whether he will be able to sway enough votes on the 9-member MPC committee to his side of the argument to deliver a rate hike relatively sooner than otherwise.

On balance, big-splash volatility risk may be asymmetrically tilting to the upside in the near term. The emergence of other plausibly hawkish voices in the Minutes document may drive tightening speculation and send the British Pound higher. A status-quo release may likewise trigger a bounce however, albeit probably a more modest one, as the passing of event risk clears a path for profit-taking after Sterling dropped to a four-month low yesterday. Indeed, it seems that only the perception of a significantly dovish shift in the MPC’s cumulative posture will deliver meaningful downside continuation.

The US Dollar moved broadly higher against its leading counterparts in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.2 percent and setting a new six-month high. The advance tracked a rise in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, hinting the move reflected follow-through on a supportive set of US housing data released earlier in the day. Upbeat economic news-flow suggests the Federal Reserve may move relatively sooner than expected to raise interest rates after QE3 asset purchases are wound down in October. The greenback’s advance was most pronounced against the Japanese Yen and the New Zealand Dollar.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

RBA Gov Stevens Semi-Annual Testimony

-

-

-

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Balance Total (¥) (JUL)

-964.0B

-713.9B

-823.2B

23:50

JPY

Adj. Merchandise Trade Balance (¥) (JUL)

-964.0B

-761.3B

-1067.8B

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JUL)

3.9%

3.8%

-1.9%

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JUL)

2.3%

-1.5%

8.4%

0:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JUL)

-0.1%

-

0.1%

1:00

AUD

Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JUL)

0.9%

-

1.6%

4:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUN)

-0.4%

-0.4%

0.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German PPI (MoM) (JUL)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German PPI (YoY) (JUL)

-0.7%

-0.7%

Medium

7:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUL)

-

-1.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

Bank of England August Meeting Minutes

-

-

High

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (MoM) (JUN)

-

-1.5%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (YoY) (JUN)

-

3.5%

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (AUG)

4

2

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (AUG)

-

-4

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3229

1.3281

1.3300

1.3333

1.3352

1.3385

1.3437

GBPUSD

1.6416

1.6534

1.6576

1.6652

1.6694

1.6770

1.6888

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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