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British Pound May Turn Higher on Status-Quo BOE Inflation Report

British Pound May Turn Higher on Status-Quo BOE Inflation Report

2014-08-13 06:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Turn Higher on Status-Quo BOE Inflation Report
  • Euro Looking for Catalyst to Trigger Rebound, German CPI in Focus
  • Aussie Dollar Outperformed on Consumer Confidence Data Overnight

UK Jobless Claims data is unlikely to command the typically high level of attention when the numbers cross the wires as investors look ahead to the release of the Bank of England Inflation Report. As we noted in our weekly forecast, volatility risk is tilted to the upside for the British Pound after a moderation in rate hike expectations delivered five consecutive weeks of losses for the UK unit. That opens the door for a correction higher absent a particularly acute dovish shift in the central bank’s rhetoric or an especially aggressive downgrade of its economic outlook. Technical positioning bolsters the case for a corrective upswing. For its part, the jobs report is forecast to show applications for unemployment benefits fell 30,000 in July, marking the smallest drawdown in three months.

Elsewhere on the calendar, the final revision of July’s German CPI reading is expected to confirm the benchmark year-on-year inflation rate fell to 0.8 percent, the lowest level since February 2010. While yesterday’s ZEW Survey figures didn’t spark a Euro recovery as we suspected, the single currency’s relatively modest losses in the wake of a markedly disappointing outcome seemed to underscore the idea that the short-EUR trade has become crowded and prone to a correction. Indeed, the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report shows speculative net-short positioning hit a two-year high last week. For its part, the chart setup appears to reinforce the possibility of an upswing. An upside revision on the CPI reading stands as the next possible catalyst for a bounce.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed a strong Westpac Consumer Confidence reading that showed jumped 3.8 percent in the August survey compared with July, marking the largest monthly increase since September 2013. The Aussie’s move higher tracked a parallel advance in Australia’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting upbeat news-flow was interpreted as supportive for RBA monetary policy expectations.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ) (2Q P)

-1.7%

-1.8%

1.5%

23:50

JPY

GDP Annualized(QoQ) (2Q P)

-6.8%

-7.0%

6.1%

23:50

JPY

Nominal GDP (QoQ) (2Q P)

-0.1%

0.0%

1.6%

23:50

JPY

GDP Deflator (YoY) (2Q P)

2.0%

1.6%

-0.1%

23:50

JPY

GDP Consumer Spending (QoQ) (2Q P)

-5.2%

-3.7%

2.1%

23:50

JPY

GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (2Q P)

-2.5%

-3.0%

7.7%

23:50

JPY

Bank of Japan July Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf Index (AUG)

98.5

-

94.9

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence (AUG)

3.8%

-

1.9%

1:30

AUD

Wage Cost Index (QoQ) (2Q)

0.6%

0.7%

0.7%

1:30

AUD

Wage Cost Index (YoY) (2Q)

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2:33

CNY

Money Supply M0 (YoY) (JUL)

5.4%

5.7%

5.3%

2:33

CNY

Money Supply M1 (YoY) (JUL)

6.7%

8.6%

8.9%

2:33

CNY

Money Supply M2 (YoY) (JUL)

13.5%

14.4%

14.7%

2:33

CNY

New Yuan Loans (JUL)

385.2B

780.0B

1079.3B

2:33

CNY

Aggregate Financing (RMB) (JUL)

273.1B

1500.0B

1974.5B

5:30

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (JUL)

17.0%

17.4%

17.3%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUL)

12.1%

12.2%

12.1%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)

12.2%

12.5%

12.4%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUL)

8.8%

8.8%

8.8%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL)

9.0%

9.2%

9.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (JUL F)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (JUL F)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL F)

0.3%

0.3%

Low

6:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL F)

0.8%

0.8%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

-

-0.1%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

-

-0.8%

Low

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (JUL)

3.0%

3.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (JUL)

-30.0K

-36.3K

High

8:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/Y) (JUN)

-0.1%

0.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/Y) (JUN)

0.7%

0.7%

Low

8:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (JUN)

6.4%

6.5%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Employment Change (3M/3M) (JUN)

270K

254K

Low

8:30

EUR

Italian General Government Debt (JUN)

-

2166.3B

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN)

0.4%

-1.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)

0.2%

0.5%

Low

9:00

CHF

Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) (AUG)

-

0.1

Medium

9:30

GBP

Bank of England Inflation Report

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3264

1.3314

1.3342

1.3364

1.3392

1.3414

1.3464

GBPUSD

1.6677

1.6736

1.6774

1.6795

1.6833

1.6854

1.6913

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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