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Euro May Begin Upward Correction on German ZEW Data

Euro May Begin Upward Correction on German ZEW Data

2014-08-12 05:13:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro May Correct Higher on Upbeat German ZEW Survey Outcome
  • NZ Dollar Sold in Asia as Housing Data Dents RBNZ Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Augusts’ German ZEW Survey of investor confidence headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The forward-looking Expectations index is expected to print at 17.0, marking the lowest reading since December 2012. Eurozone economic news-flow has been improving relative to consensus forecasts over the past three weeks, opening the door for an upside surprise.

Speculative net-short Euro positioning hit a two-year high last week according to the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report. In the absence of a deeper push into dovish territory from the ECB at last week’s policy meeting, a corrective upswing seems reasonable before selling pressure returns in force and an upbeat ZEW outcome may prove to be just the spark needed to set off profit-taking.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The currency sank to session lows after data from REINZ showed house sales fell 13 percent year-on-year in July. The Kiwi’s drop followed a decline in New Zealand’s front-end bond yields, pointing to fading RBNZ rate hike bets.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (JUL)

2.6%

-

-0.7%

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (JUL)

-0.3%

0.9%

-0.8%

23:50

JPY

Domestic CGPI (MoM) (JUL)

0.3%

0.4%

0.2%

23:50

JPY

Domestic CGPI (YoY) (JUL)

4.3%

4.4%

4.6%

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (JUL)

8

-

2

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (JUL)

11

-

8

1:30

AUD

House Price Index (QoQ) (2Q)

1.8%

1.0%

1.5%

1:30

AUD

House Price Index (YoY) (2Q)

10.1%

9.3%

10.9%

1:30

AUD

Credit Card Purchases (A$) (JUN)

23.1B

-

22.9B

1:30

AUD

Credit Card Balances (A$) (JUN)

49.9B

-

49.7B

2:30

NZD

REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

-0.7%

-

-0.3%

2:30

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUL)

-13.0%

-

-6.1%

2:30

NZD

REINZ House Price Index (JUL)

3885.5

-

3913.3

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JUN)

-3.3%

-

-0.7%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN F)

-3.4%

-

-3.3%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN F)

3.1%

-

3.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

9:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (AUG)

-

48.1

Medium

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (AUG)

54.0

61.8

Medium

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (AUG)

17.0

27.1

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3326

1.3360

1.3372

1.3394

1.3406

1.3428

1.3462

GBPUSD

1.6735

1.6760

1.6773

1.6785

1.6798

1.6810

1.6835

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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