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Yen Soars on Haven Demand as Geopolitical Jitters Sink Risk Appetite

Yen Soars on Haven Demand as Geopolitical Jitters Sink Risk Appetite

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen Soars, Aussie and NZ Dollars Fall as Risk Aversion Sweeps Markets
  • US Dollar and Swiss Franc Capitalize on Safety-Seeking Capital Inflows
  • Stock Futures Drop, Hinting Risky Asset Liquidation Likely to Continue

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.5 percent against its leading counterparts, as risk aversion gripped Asian markets and drove demand for the safety-linked currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell 1.4 percent in a move the newswires attributed to geopolitical jitters after US President Obama authorized air strikes in Iraq. That compounded an already tense environment tainted by an unraveling cease-fire between Israel and Hamas as well as retaliatory sanctions from Russia against Western powers.

The US Dollar and Swiss Franc likewise managed to capitalize on safe haven demand, rising as much as 0.1 and 0.2 percent respectively against the majors. On the other side of the risk appetite spectrum, the sentiment-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars faced broad-based selling pressure. The high-yielders fell as much as 0.4 percent apiece on average against their G10 FX peers.

A relatively tame economic calendar through the end of the trading week is likely to keep sentiment trends at the forefront. European and US stock index futures are pointing aggressively lower in late Asian trade, hinting overnight trends are likely to continue to play out amid liquidation across the spectrum of risk-geared assets.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl. Trusts (YoY) (JUL)

2.2%

-

2.3%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JUL)

2.3%

-

2.5%

23:50

JPY

Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q)

2.7%

-

2.9%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (JUN)

-399.1B

-325.7B

522.8B

23:50

JPY

Adj. Current Account Total (¥) (JUN)

125.6B

109.0B

384.6B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (JUN)

-537.1B

-592.8B

-675.9B

1:30

AUD

Home Loans (JUN)

0.2%

0.6%

-0.1%

1:30

AUD

Investment Lending (JUN)

-0.3%

-

-0.9%

1:30

AUD

Value of Loans (MoM) (JUN)

1.8%

-

-0.7%

1:30

AUD

RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement

-

-

-

2:58

CNY

Trade Balance (JUL)

$47.30B

$26.00B

$31.56B

2:58

CNY

Exports (YoY) (JUL)

14.5%

7.0%

7.2%

2:58

CNY

Imports (YoY) (JUL)

-1.6%

2.6%

5.5%

3:08

JPY

BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (¥)

270T

270T

270T

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUL)

-13.95%

-

-3.56%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUL)

51.3

48.5

47.7

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUL)

51.5

-

53.3

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (JUL)

2.9% (A)

2.9%

Medium

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL)

3.2% (A)

3.2%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (JUN)

16.5B (A)

17.8B

Low

6:00

EUR

German Current Account (€) (JUN)

15.0B (A)

12.2B

Low

6:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

0.9% (A)

-1.1%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

4.5% (A)

-3.4%

Low

6:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (JUL)

62.7B (A)

62.9B

Low

6:30

JPY

BOJ Monetary Policy Statement

-

-

Medium

8:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£) (JUN)

-8900M

-9204M

Low

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£) (JUN)

-3700M

-3961M

Low

8:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

1.0%

-1.1%

Low

8:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (JUN)

4.7%

3.5%

Low

8:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (£) (JUN)

-2050

-2418

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3251

1.3308

1.3336

1.3365

1.3393

1.3422

1.3479

GBPUSD

1.6760

1.6800

1.6816

1.6840

1.6856

1.6880

1.6920

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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