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Euro, Pound May Look Past Factory Data as BOE and ECB Loom Ahead

Euro, Pound May Look Past Factory Data as BOE and ECB Loom Ahead

2014-08-06 05:35:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • NZ Dollar Drops on Fading RBNZ Rate Hike Bets Soft Jobs Figures
  • Euro, Pound May Not Find Drivers in Assorted Factory-Sector Data
  • See Economic Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed disappointing economic data that showed employment grew 0.4 percent in the second quarter compared with the three months through March, an outcome that fell short of economists’ forecasts calling for a 0.7 percent increase.

The Kiwi’s slide tracked a parallel decline in New Zealand’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting the data undermined RBNZ rate hike expectations. A drop in the jobless rate failed to mitigate negativity considering it came alongside a decline in participation, suggesting the lower headline figure owed more to a shrinking labor force than a pickup in hiring.

Looking ahead, an assortment of European activity data seems unlikely to yield a lasting response from the markets. German Factory Orders and UK Industrial Production figures headline the docket, but traders are unlikely to commit to a firm directional bias on the basis of the outcomes as heavy-duty event risk by way of the ECB and BOE monetary policy announcements looms ahead later in the week. We are holding short EURUSD and waiting to identify a short GBPUSD setup.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Unemployment Rate (2Q)

5.6%

5.8%

5.9%

22:45

NZD

Employment Change (QoQ) (2Q)

0.4%

0.7%

0.9%

22:45

NZD

Employment Change (YoY) (2Q)

3.7%

4.0%

3.7%

22:45

NZD

Participation Rate (QoQ) (2Q)

68.9%

69.3%

69.2%

22:45

NZD

Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (2Q)

0.6%

0.5%

0.3%

22:45

NZD

Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (2Q)

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

22:45

NZD

Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (2Q)

0.6%

0.5%

0.3%

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

-1.9%

-1.6%

-1.8%

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (JUN P)

109.4

109.6

111.3

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (JUN P)

105.5

105.5

104.8

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)

0.9%

-1.7%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)

1.1%

5.5%

Medium

7:00

GBP

Halifax House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

0.4%

-0.6%

Low

7:00

GBP

Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JUL)

9.6%

8.8%

Low

7:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (JUL)

-0.4%

-0.1%

Medium

7:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (JUL)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUL)

-0.2%

-0.1%

Low

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUL)

-0.3%

-0.1%

Low

7:30

EUR

Markit Germany Construction PMI (JUL)

-

45.5

Medium

8:00

GBP

New Car Registrations (YoY) (JUL)

-

6.2%

Low

8:10

EUR

Markit France Retail PMI (JUL)

-

47.6

Low

8:10

EUR

Markit Italy Retail PMI (JUL)

-

43.8

Low

8:10

EUR

Markit Germany Retail PMI (JUL)

-

56.2

Medium

8:10

EUR

Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (JUL)

-

50.0

Medium

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUN)

0.6%

-1.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUN)

2.1%

3.7%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN)

0.6%

-0.7%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)

1.5%

2.3%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q P)

0.1%

-0.5%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.1%

-0.1%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3252

1.3319

1.3348

1.3386

1.3415

1.3453

1.3520

GBPUSD

1.6785

1.6829

1.6858

1.6873

1.6902

1.6917

1.6961

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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