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US Dollar May Correct Lower from 4-Month High on July Jobs Data

US Dollar May Correct Lower from 4-Month High on July Jobs Data

2014-08-01 04:50:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Turn Lower as July’s Jobs Report Falls Short of Forecasts
  • British Pound Unlikely to Find Lasting Driver in Manufacturing PMI Data
  • View Economic Data Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The spotlight is firmly pointed at July’s US Employment figures through the end of the trading week. Consensus forecasts are penciling in a 230,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, marking a slight slowdown compared with the 288,000 jobs gain recorded in June. Worrying cues from PMI data produced by Markit Economics open the door for a downside surprise however.

The research firm reported that the pace of manufacturing employment growth eased for the first time since April in July, marking the smallest increase in 10 months. On the service sector side of the equation, Markit said the rate of job creation markedly eased this month compared with June.

A soft reading may fuel speculation that the time gap between the end of QE3 asset purchases in October and the first Fed interest rate hike will be a relatively long one, weighing on the US Dollar after the benchmark unit soared to a new 4-month high against its leading counterparts yesterday.

The UK Manufacturing PMI figure headlines the European data docket. Expectations point to a narrow slowdown in the pace of factory-sector growth, with the index slipping to 57.2 in July after printing at a seven-month high of 57.5 in June.

UK data flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since late February, hinting analysts have tended to over-estimate the resilience of the economy and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may undermine BOE interest rate hike bets and weigh on British Pound. Follow-through may be limited however, with traders unwilling to commit to a directional bias until after US jobs data is in the rearview mirror.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Mfg Index (JUL)

50.7

-

48.9

23:36

AUD

RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (JUL)

1.6%

-

1.4%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUN)

2.3%

-

2.2%

1:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (JUL)

51.7

51.4

51.0

1:30

AUD

Producer Price Index (YoY) (2Q)

2.3%

-

2.5%

1:30

AUD

Producer Price Index (QoQ) (2Q)

-0.1%

-

0.9%

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (JUL F)

50.5

-

50.8

1:45

CNY

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (JUL F)

51.7

52.0

52

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUL)

-

-0.7%

6:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (YoY) (JUL)

-

94.6

6:30

AUD

Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (JUL)

-

-9.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI (JUL)

52.5

52.6

Low

7:50

EUR

Markit France Manufacturing PMI (JUL F)

47.6

47.6

Low

7:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (JUL F)

52.9

52.9

Medium

8:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (JUL F)

51.9

51.9

Medium

8:30

GBP

Markit UK Manufacturing PMI s.a. (JUL)

57.2

57.5

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3330

1.3359

1.3375

1.3388

1.3404

1.3417

1.3446

GBPUSD

1.6750

1.6820

1.6853

1.6890

1.6923

1.6960

1.7030

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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