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Euro May Bounce from 9-Month Low if CPI Data Tops Forecasts

Euro May Bounce from 9-Month Low if CPI Data Tops Forecasts

2014-07-31 05:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Euro May Bounce from 9-Month Low if Flash CPI Data Beats Forecasts
  • New Zealand Dollar Bounces as Markets Chew Over RBNZ Policy Outlook
  • View Economic Data Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary estimate of July’s Eurozone CPI reading headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the benchmark year-on-year inflation rate to register at 0.5 percent, unchanged from the prior month. Leading PMI data from Markit Economics suggested output prices fell at a faster pace this month compared with June, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may feed ECB stimulus expansion bets, weighing on the Euro.

It ought to be noted however that price-growth figures out of the single currency area have steadily improved relative to economists’ forecasts since the beginning of the year, according to figures from Citigroup. That means analysts have tended to over-estimate the extent of Eurozone disinflation. If that proves to be the case this time around, an upbeat print may help the single currency correct higher after sliding to the lowest level in nearly nine months against the US Dollar.

The New Zealand Dollar narrowly outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move paced a rebound in the island nation’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting the Kiwi’s bounce reflected a correction as markets re-price monetary policy expectations following last week’s RBNZ rate decision.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUL)

-2

2

1

1:30

AUD

Export Price Index (QoQ) (2Q)

-7.9%

-4.0%

2.8%

1:30

AUD

Import Price Index (QoQ) (2Q)

-3.0%

-1.5%

3.2%

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (JUN)

-5.0%

0.0%

10.3%

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (JUN)

16.0%

23.3%

15.2%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUN)

0.7%

0.4%

0.4%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUN)

5.1%

4.7%

4.7%

1:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUN)

0.4%

0.8%

0.6%

2:30

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUN)

6.6%

-

6.1%

3:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN)

5.4%

-

5.2%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (JUN)

0.883M

0.857M

0.872M

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (JUN)

9.3%

-

13.7%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (JUN)

-9.5%

-11.5%

-15.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

0.5%

1.0%

Low

6:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL)

11.3%

11.8%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)

1.0%

-0.6%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

1.3%

1.9%

Medium

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (JUL)

-5K

9K

Medium

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL)

6.7%

6.7%

Medium

8:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate (JUN P)

12.6%

12.6%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JUL)

0.5%

0.5%

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (JUL A)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUN)

11.6%

11.6%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI NIC incl. tobacco (MoM) (JUL P)

0.0%

0.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI NIC incl. tobacco (YoY) (JUL P)

0.2%

0.3%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3297

1.3345

1.3371

1.3393

1.3419

1.3441

1.3489

GBPUSD

1.6789

1.6854

1.6884

1.6919

1.6949

1.6984

1.7049

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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