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US Dollar May Rise Before Key Data on Firming Consumer Confidence

US Dollar May Rise Before Key Data on Firming Consumer Confidence

2014-07-29 03:59:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Edge Higher as Consumer Confidence Hits Six-Year High
  • Australian Dollar Followed S&P 500 Futures Lower in Quiet Asian Trade
  • View Economic Data Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Another quiet day on the European economic data front is likely to see investors looking ahead to US economic news-flow. July’s Consumer Confidence reading is in focus, with expectations suggesting the index will rise to a six-year high of 85.4. The outcome may help to set the stage for an overstuffed week of high-profile US releases including the FOMC policy announcement, the second-quarter GDP reading and July’s Nonfarm Payrolls number.

The central object of speculation is the length of the time gap between October’s end of the Fed’s QE3stimulus program and the beginning of interest rate hikes. With that in mind, upbeat US economic outcomes are likely to support the view that tightening will materialize relatively sooner versus later, pushing the US Dollar higher. Needless to say, soft outcomes are likely to yield opposite result. We remain long the greenback against the Euro as well as the Canadian Dollar.

The Australian Dollar narrowly underperformed in otherwise quiet Asian trade, sliding 0.13 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move lower tracked an overnight decline in S&P 500 index futures, hinting at eroding risk appetite as the catalyst behind selling pressure facing the sentiment-sensitive currency. Technical positioning warns the equities benchmark may be topping.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (JUN)

3.7%

3.5%

3.5%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUN)

1.10

1.09

1.09

23:30

JPY

Household Spending (YoY) (JUN)

-3.0%

-4.0%

-8.0%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (JUN)

-0.6%

-0.5%

-0.4%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

0.4%

0.8%

4.6%

23:50

JPY

Large Retailers' Sales (JUN)

-1.8%

-1.9%

-1.2%

1:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)

1.2%

-

-4.3%

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (JUL)

-

47.3

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

0.3%

0.0%

Low

6:00

EUR

Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

-1.2%

-2.1%

Low

8:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUN)

1.9B

2.0B

Low

8:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (JUN)

63.0K

61.7K

Medium

8:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (JUN)

0.8B

0.7B

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUN)

-

-0.1%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUN)

-0.6%

-0.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUN)

3.8%

2.7%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3403

1.3420

1.3430

1.3437

1.3447

1.3454

1.3471

GBPUSD

1.6923

1.6954

1.6969

1.6985

1.7000

1.7016

1.7047

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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