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British Pound Looks to UK GDP Data to Guide BOE Rate Hike Outlook

British Pound Looks to UK GDP Data to Guide BOE Rate Hike Outlook

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Second-quarter UK GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations suggest output grew 0.8 percent, matching the first-quarter outcome. The year-on-year growth rate is expected to accelerate to 3.1 percent, the fastest in almost seven years.

Data from Citigroup shows UK economic news-flow aggressively deteriorated relative to expectations in the three months through June, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome is likely to undermine BOE interest rate hike speculation, weighing on the British Pound.

The Australian Dollar narrowly underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked a decline in Australia’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting the selloff reflected moderation in investors’ RBA policy outlook following a surge triggered by second-quarter CPI figures.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (JUL)

0.1%

-

0.3%

23:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (JUL)

5.8%

-

6.0%

23:30

JPY

National CPI (YoY) (JUN)

3.6%

3.5%

3.7%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN)

3.3%

3.3%

3.4%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN)

2.3%

2.3%

2.2%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JUL)

2.8%

2.8%

3.0%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)

2.8%

2.7%

2.8%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)

2.1%

2.0%

2.0%

23:50

JPY

PPI Services (YoY) (JUN)

3.6%

3.6%

3.6%

1:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (JUL)

45.1

-

45.8

1:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (JUL)

39.7

-

42.8

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG)

8.9

8.9

Low

8:00

EUR

German IFO - Current Assessment (JUL)

114.5

114.8

Medium

8:00

EUR

German IFO - Expectations (JUL)

104.4

104.8

Medium

8:00

EUR

German IFO - Business Climate (JUL)

109.4

109.7

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUN)

1.2%

1.0%

Low

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M Avg) (JUN)

1.0%

0.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q A)

0.8%

0.8%

High

8:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q A)

3.1%

3.0%

High

8:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (MAY)

0.2%

0.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (MAY)

1.0%

0.9%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3368

1.3415

1.3440

1.3462

1.3487

1.3509

1.3556

GBPUSD

1.6828

1.6915

1.6951

1.7002

1.7038

1.7089

1.7176

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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