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Euro Selloff May Continue as PMIs Fuel Bets on More ECB Stimulus

Euro Selloff May Continue as PMIs Fuel Bets on More ECB Stimulus

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro Selloff May Continue as PMI Data Fuels Bets on More ECB Stimulus
  • New Zealand Dollar Tumbles as RBNZ Signals Shift to Wait-and-See Mode
  • Aussie Dollar Tags 3-Week High After HSBC Reports Upbeat Chinese PMI

The preliminary set of July’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The region-wide composite index is expected to register at 52.8, showing that the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector growth remained unchanged from the prior month. Economic news-flow from the currency bloc has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year however. That suggests analysts are underestimating the degree of malaise in the area, opening the door for a downside surprise. That may fuel bets on a further expansion of ECB stimulus, putting further pressure on the Euro. We remain short EURUSD.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 1.36 percent on average against its leading counterparts, following the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. The central bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 3.5 percent as expected but signaled a pause going forward. Governor Graeme Wheeler said that it is “prudent that there now be a period of assessment before interest rates adjust further” in the policy statement accompanying the announcement.

The Australian Dollar briefly jumped to a three-week high following an upbeat Chinese Manufacturing PMI reading from HSBC. The index printed at 52.0, topping estimates calling for an outcome at 51.0 and yielding the strongest pace of factory-sector growth in eight months. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and traders typically treat signs of a pickup in activity there as supportive for the latter country’s export demand prospects. That in turn feeds a supportive narrative for overall growth and RBA monetary policy expectations. The Aussie’s gains proved short-lived however as investors digested yesterday’s post-CPI advance.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

3.50%

3.50%

3.25%

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (JUN)

247M

100M

270M

22:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (JUN)

4.20B

4.25B

4.58B

22:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (JUN)

3.95B

4.10B

4.31B

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (JUN)

1201M

1100M

1325M

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Balance Total (¥) (JUN)

-822.2B

-642.9B

-910.8B

23:50

JPY

Adj. Merchandise Trade Balance (¥) (JUN)

-1080.8B

-1119.9B

-861.3B

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JUN)

-2.0%

1.0%

-2.7%

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JUN)

8.4%

8.3%

-3.5%

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (JUL P)

50.8

-

51.5

1:45

CNY

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (JUL P)

52.0

51.0

50.7

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

France Manufacturing PMI (JUL P)

48.0

48.2

Medium

7:00

EUR

France Services PMI (JUL P)

48.2

48.2

Medium

7:00

EUR

France Composite PMI (JUL P)

48.3

48.1

Medium

7:30

EUR

Germany Manufacturing PMI (JUL P)

51.9

52.0

High

7:30

EUR

Germany Services PMI (JUL P)

54.5

54.6

High

7:30

EUR

Germany Composite PMI (JUL P)

53.8

54.0

High

8:00

EUR

Eurozone Services PMI (JUL P)

52.7

52.8

High

8:00

EUR

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (JUL P)

51.7

51.8

High

8:00

EUR

Eurozone Composite PMI (JUL P)

52.8

52.8

High

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM) (JUN)

0.3%

-0.5%

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales Incl. Auto (YoY) (JUN)

3.9%

3.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto (MoM) (JUN)

0.3%

-0.5%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto (YoY) (JUN)

4.6%

4.7%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3426

1.3445

1.3454

1.3464

1.3473

1.3483

1.3502

GBPUSD

1.6912

1.6983

1.7014

1.7054

1.7085

1.7125

1.7196

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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