We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/KdpSjQSJ8F
  • #Euro area stocks may be preparing to break the four-month uptrend built around hopes for a US-China trade deal and an orderly #Brexit outcome. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/ujlCJiXLvh https://t.co/INdFtsrTTF
  • What is the top market moving theme for the coming week? I disagree with the majority. '$EURUSD, $GBPUSD and $AUDUSD Top Volatility Candidates With #Fed, #Election, #TradeWar' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/07/EURUSD-GBPUSD-and-AUDUSD-Top-Volatility-Candidates-On-Fed-Election-Trade-War.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/Q1dbZVN5Us
  • The Australian Dollar was focused on its home country in the past week, but that is likely to change sharply in the days ahead with major global risk events coming up. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/yZz3hCyVMx https://t.co/1xw1JHwd7l
  • The #Euro broke chart resistance, threatening to challenge the bounds of its longer -term downtrend against the $USD. Bulls may find it premature to celebrate however. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/VfR13llYbW https://t.co/LiWTvIygxc
  • The $USD appears to be stalling against the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso, but technical analysis may still favor USD strength. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AZp98MoXKo https://t.co/jgZMUFVGJB
  • The Indian Rupee soared after the Reserve Bank of India surprised with a rate hold. $USDINR may climb as support reinstates the uptrend ahead of Indian CPI and global trade tensions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/QEOabsDfMn https://t.co/rqn8Zjrvkv
  • #Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your $gld technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/RILBGhLAQZ https://t.co/q5znMUlEQA
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.639% 3-Year: -0.651% 5-Year: -0.548% 7-Year: -0.480% 10-Year: -0.290% 30-Year: 0.228%
  • The $AUD erased half of November’s down move in a mere two days but the dominant trend bias continues to favor weakness ahead. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/ShYksfNXyS https://t.co/OVhyNgLRn5
British Pound at Risk with July BOE Meeting Minutes in the Spotlight

British Pound at Risk with July BOE Meeting Minutes in the Spotlight

2014-07-23 03:39:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • British Pound Vulnerable with July BOE Meeting Minutes in the Spotlight
  • Australian Dollar Soars as 2Q CPI Data Inspires RBA Rate Hike Outlook
  • See Economic Data Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Minutes from July’s Bank of England meeting headline the economic calendar in European hours. Monetary policy expectations remain firmly in control of price action. Indeed, the correlation between GBPUSD and the 2-year Gilt yield is now at 0.70, the highest in nearly three years (on 20-day percent change studies).

Commentary from Governor Mark Carney has offered mixed in recent weeks. The central bank chief said the markets were under-pricing the possibility of an interest rate hike this year, sending the British Pound sharply higher, only to walk back the comment days later. That has left Sterling adrift and waiting for direction cues.

With that in mind, traders will be keen to size up the voting pattern on the rate-setting MPC committee to see if unanimity in favor of the status quo was broken at July’s sit-down. While any votes in favor of a rate hike will have been in the minority, their emergence alone is likely to be interpreted as a de-facto hawkish posture shift and send the UK unit higher. Another 9-0 tally to keep things unchanged may yield the opposite result.

On balance, the case for a near-term tightening seems flimsy. UK economic news-flow has been deteriorating relative to expectations since late March. Meanwhile, June’s bounce in the baseline inflation rate (1.9 percent versus a 4.5-year low of 1.5 percent in May) masks a slide in price growth bets. Indeed, the 5-year “breakeven rate” – a measure of investors’ priced-in inflation outlook – has trended downward since April and now sits just above a four-month low. For the Pound, that seems to tilt surprise risk to the downside.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The rally followed the release of marginally upbeat second-quarter CPI figures. While the headline year-on-year inflation rate printed in line with expectations at 3 percent, the seasonally adjusted Trimmed Mean measure of “underlying” price growth trends topped forecasts to hit a four-year high of 2.9 percent. AUDUSD advanced alongside Australia’s 2-year bond yield, hinting the CPI data set inspired a hawkish shift in investors’ RBA policy outlook.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:00

AUD

Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JUN)

1.6%

-

1.8%

1:30

AUD

CPI (QoQ) (2Q)

0.5%

0.5%

0.6%

1:30

AUD

CPI (YoY) (2Q)

3.0%

3.0%

2.9%

1:30

AUD

RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) (2Q)

0.8%

0.6%

0.5%

1:30

AUD

RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) (2Q)

2.9%

2.7%

2.6%

1:30

AUD

RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) (2Q)

0.6%

0.7%

0.6%

1:30

AUD

RBA Weighted Median (YoY) (2Q)

2.7%

2.7%

2.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase (JUN)

41375

41757

Low

8:30

GBP

Bank of England Minutes

-

-

High

10:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (JUL)

15

4

Low

11:45

GBP

BOE’s Carney Speaks in Glasgow

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3343

1.3414

1.3440

1.3485

1.3511

1.3556

1.3627

GBPUSD

1.6981

1.7022

1.7043

1.7063

1.7084

1.7104

1.7145

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.