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Euro May Rise if June CPI Data Tops Forecasts, Denting ECB Easing Bets

Euro May Rise if June CPI Data Tops Forecasts, Denting ECB Easing Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Move Closer to 1.37 vs. USD if June’s Flash CPI Estimate Tops Forecasts
  • US Dollar Has Scope to Rebound on Upbeat Home Sales Figures, Fed Commentary
  • NZ Dollar Fell in Asia as a Drop in Business Confidence Hurt RBNZ Rate Hike Bets

The preliminary set of June’s Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the benchmark year-on-year inflation rate to print at 0.5 percent, unchanged from the prior month. Leading data from Markit Economics pointed to a pickup in regional price growth over the relevant period, with both manufacturing and service-sector companies citing higher oil prices as the culprit. If this proves to foreshadow an upside surprise on today’s release, the Euro may move higher as traders reduce bets on a near-term expansion of ECB stimulus efforts. Technical positioning underscores the possibility of further EUR/USD gains ahead.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to US news-flow. May’s Pending Home Sales report is on tap, with consensus forecasts pointing to a 1.2 percent month-on-month increase after a meager 0.4 percent gain in April. Last week’s existing and new home sales figures broadly outperformed expectations, hinting more of the same may be in the cards. Separately, the Fed’s John Williams is set to speak. The President of the central bank’s San Francisco branch is seen as a close confidant of current Fed Chair Janet Yellen, whom he replaced when she was elevated to the Board of Governors. Mr Williams struck a moderately hawkish tone in his comments last week, suggesting a similar approach can be expected this time around. Taken together, this may translate into a bounce for the US Dollar.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.45 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed a disappointing outcome on June’s ANZ Business Confidence measure, which showed sentiment tumbled to the lowest level in 13 months. The Kiwi’s slide tracked a drop in benchmark 10-year New Zealand bond yield, hinting soft economic news-flow was weighing against RBNZ rate hike expectations.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (MAY)

-4.6%

-2.5%

1.9%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN P)

0.8%

1.5%

3.8%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN P)

0.5%

0.9%

-2.8%

1:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (MAY)

-4.3%

-

2.9%

1:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (JUN)

45.8

-

51.0

1:00

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence (JUN)

42.8

-

53.5

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (MAY)

0.4%

0.4%

0.5%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (MAY)

4.7%

4.7%

4.6%

3:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (MAY)

5.2%

-

5.3%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (MAY)

6.1%

-

3.4%

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (JUN)

47.3

-

46.6

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (MAY)

0.872M

0.909M

0.906M

6:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (MAY)

13.7%

-

104.9%

6:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (MAY)

-15.0%

-10.5%

-3.3%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY)

0.8%

-0.9%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY)

1.0%

3.2%

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M/3M) (MAY)

0.8%

1.0%

Low

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (MAY)

0.8%

0.8%

Low

8:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (MAY)

0.7B

0.7B

Low

8:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (MAY)

1.6B

1.7B

Low

8:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (MAY)

61.8K

62.9K

Medium

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (MAY)

-0.1%

-0.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (MAY)

-0.3%

-0.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (MAY)

3.1%

4.5%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (JUN A)

0.7%

0.7%

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JUN)

0.5%

0.5%

High

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (JUN P)

0.1%

-0.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (JUN P)

0.3%

0.5%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUN P)

0.4%

0.4%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUN P)

0.2%

-0.1%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3555

1.3596

1.3622

1.3637

1.3663

1.3678

1.3719

GBPUSD

1.6941

1.6986

1.7011

1.7031

1.7056

1.7076

1.7121

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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