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Pound Looks to Financial Stability Report to Drive BOE Rate Hike Bets

Pound Looks to Financial Stability Report to Drive BOE Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • BOE Financial Stability Report Headlines Quiet European Calendar
  • Pound May Drop if FSR Fails to Stoke BOE Rate Hike Expectations
  • US Dollar May Rise as Upbeat Data Boosts Fed Normalization Bets

The spotlight turns to the Bank of England once again in European trading hours as Governor Mark Carney presents the bi-annual Financial Stability Report (FSR). The document is expected to feature measures to cool the frothy UK property market. The pace of housing price increases accelerated to a year-on-year pace of 11.1 percent in May according to data from the Nationwide Building Society, marking a seven-year high. The central bank’s own data shows UK citizens owe a hefty £1.2 trillion on their homes. That has officials worried about excessive levels of debt, which could potentially lead to a crisis akin to the US mortgages fiasco that metastasized into the 2008 credit crunch and subsequent global recession.

The FSR’s impact on the British Pound will largely reflect its implications for BOE monetary policy normalization. If the report suggests that the need to cool exuberance in the housing market will meant that interest rate hikes are needed sooner than might otherwise have been the case, Sterling is likely to move broadly higher. The absence of distinctly hawkish rhetoric – a reasonably likely outcome considering Mr. Carney has previously voiced his support for a macro-prudential rather than rates-driven policy response – may leave Pound bulls disappointed and open the door for disappointed selling. GBPUSD has pulled back from recent highs ahead of the FSR’s release, losing its grip on the 1.70 figure, while EURGBP has recovered above the 0.80 mark.

Later in the day, investors’ focus will shift to US economic data once again. The PCE Deflator – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – is expected to show price growth accelerated to a year-on-year rate of 1.8 percent in May, the highest since October 2012. Personal Income and Spending figures are likewise expected to show improvement over the same period. This week’s larger-than-expected downgrade of first-quarter US GDP growth weighed on the US Dollar but failed to produce a breakout. As we suggested yesterday, this probably reflects the fact that the now amply priced-in downturn in the first three months of the year failed to derail the Fed’s stimulus reduction efforts. With that in mind, a round of supportive releases that bolsters the case for QE cutback continuity and paves the way for rate hikes relatively soon thereafter may send the greenback higher.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:30

AUD

Job Vacancies (MAY)

2.5%

-

2.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Confidence (JUN)

85

85

Low

9:30

GBP

BOE’s Carney Presents Financial Stability Report

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3527

1.3577

1.3603

1.3627

1.3653

1.3677

1.3727

GBPUSD

1.6876

1.6928

1.6956

1.6980

1.7008

1.7032

1.7084

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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