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  • Last week’s updated Federal Reserve dot plot, suggesting two US interest rate increases in 2023, could be a game-changer for $EURUSD. Strategically, a long-term trend lower may have now begun. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/xMvmnbkpt7 https://t.co/yRCuwj7cAI
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  • And the Monday Asia trading session has officially begun. A pair to have on your watch list to kick off early trade: $AUDUSD post head-and-shoulders' neckline (and 200-DMA) breakdown https://t.co/iuYqEN5xpv
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/MZtBh88nOv https://t.co/DIP9cgoSUt
  • Here are the top scheduled event risks on my calendar for the coming week. Global PMIs, a few rate decisions, the Fed's bank stress test results, the Fed's favorite inflation indicator and a run of Fed speak among much more: https://t.co/3jIl4PvHiA
US Dollar to Look Past GDP Downgrade, Focus on Durable Goods and PMI

US Dollar to Look Past GDP Downgrade, Focus on Durable Goods and PMI

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro Still Looking to ECB Commentary for Stimulus Expansion Clues
  • Currency Markets May Look Past Another Downgrade of 1Q US GDP
  • US Dollar to Rise if Durables, PMI Data Top Economists’ Forecasts

A lackluster European economic calendar offers little to drive volatility in the major currencies. Another round of scheduled commentary from ECB officials is perhaps most notable, with Governing Council members Carlos Costa, Luis Maria Linde and Jens Weidmann all set to speak. Investors will be looking for clues about a forthcoming ECB asset purchase program, scanning officials’ remarks for any indications about the strategy approach likely to be implemented and timing of the effort’s commencement. It ought to be noted ample prior commentary from ECB policymakers has failed to drive the Euro, with EURUSD oscillating near the 1.36 figure.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to US news-flow once again. The final revision of first-quarter GDP figures is expected to further downgrade the economy’s performance, revealing a 1.8 percent contraction. That compares with a previously reported 1 percent drop decline. While hardly supportive, the outcome may not translate into downward pressure on the US Dollar considering the now widely-publicized slump in the first three months of the year has clearly failed to derail the Fed’s effort to “taper” QE asset purchases.

With that in mind, investors may opt to focus on more timely bits of scheduled event risk, with the spotlight on May’s Durable Goods Orders report and June’s service-sector and composite PMI figures. The trend in US economic data outcomes marked an important turning point relative to consensus forecasts in early April and has broadly (if unevenly) continued to improve since. More of the same may help engineer a re-evaluation of US Dollar weakness following last week’s FOMC announcement, sending the benchmark unit higher.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

PPI Services (YoY) (MAY)

3.6%

3.3%

3.4%

1:00

AUD

Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (MAY)

-1.3%

-

-1.3%

1:45

CNY

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (JUN)

112.6

-

121.2

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (MAY)

-

1.72

Low

6:00

EUR

German GfK Consumer Confidence (JUL)

8.6

8.5

Low

8:00

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)

0.0%

-0.2%

Low

8:00

EUR

Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)

-0.5%

-3.5%

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (JUN)

23

16

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.3518

1.3562

1.3584

1.3606

1.3628

1.3650

1.3694

GBPUSD

1.6863

1.6929

1.6957

1.6995

1.7023

1.7061

1.7127

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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