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Franc to Look Past SNB Announcement, Euro May Fall on ECB Rhetoric

Franc to Look Past SNB Announcement, Euro May Fall on ECB Rhetoric

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Swiss Franc Unlikely to Find Volatility in SNB Policy Announcement
  • Euro May Turn Lower Anew on Dovish Rhetoric from ECB Officials
  • NZ Dollar Fell on Corrective Flows, Soft 1Q GDP Figure Overnight

A monetary policy announcement from the Swiss National Bank headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations pointing to a status-quo outcome are unlikely to be let down. The overall trend in Swiss inflation data has been broadly in line with consensus forecasts for over a year. More of the same going forward argues against changes in the policy mix as analysts pencil in price growth south of 1 percent through next year. With that in mind, the announcement is unlikely to offer meaningful impetus for Swiss Franc volatility.

Elsewhere, commentary from ECB officials may prove of note. Remarks from Vice President Vitor Constancio and Governing Council member Ignazio Visco are set to come across the wires. The ECB alluded to a forthcoming ABS purchase program as the next step in expanding its stimulus efforts and traders will be on the look-out for any details illuminating the operational details and timing of such a move. Rhetoric suggesting the QE-style effort is relatively close to implementation is likely to weigh on the Euro and we are looking for EURUSD selling opportunities.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed a disappointing first-quarter GDP reading that showed output added 1 percent in the three months through March, falling short of forecasts calling for a 1.1 percent gain. Corrective flows probably amplified the decline after the Kiwi led the majors in the prior session following the FOMC policy announcement.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q)

1.0%

1.1%

1.0%

22:45

NZD

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q)

3.8%

3.7%

3.3%

1:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Total (A$) (MAY)

489M

-

325M

1:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Govt (A$) (MAY)

-524M

-

-375M

1:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (A$) (MAY)

55M

-

54M

4:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (APR)

-4.3%

-4.1%

1.5%

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (APR F)

106.5

-

106.6

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (APR F)

111.1

-

111.1

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:30

CHF

Swiss National Bank Rate Decision

0.0%

0.0%

High

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto (MoM) (MAY)

-0.6%

1.8%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto (YoY) (MAY)

4.8%

7.7%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales incl. Auto (MoM) (MAY)

-0.5%

1.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales incl. Auto (YoY) (MAY)

4.3%

6.9%

Medium

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (JUN)

2

0

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUN)

5

4

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3465

1.3522

1.3559

1.3579

1.3616

1.3636

1.3693

GBP/USD

1.6813

1.6893

1.6943

1.6973

1.7023

1.7053

1.7133

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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