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EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

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Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

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USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

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Real Time News
  • 🇳🇱 Unemployment Rate (MAY) Actual: 3.3% Previous: 3.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-17
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 80.95%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.33%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/GlVeoFiw3x
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.54% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.23% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.00% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/FYEpgj5pmU
  • Heads Up:🇳🇱 Unemployment Rate (MAY) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 3.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-17
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/pFtPrUj8i0
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: -0.22% Germany 30: -0.27% Wall Street: -0.32% US 500: -0.37% FTSE 100: -0.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/uNvnkxmWQi
  • AUD/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their most net-long AUD/USD since Jun 04 when AUD/USD traded near 0.77. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to AUD/USD weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/XvwQCrigtw
  • The Fed charged the Dollar more than it rocked risk assets - at least initially. Was there enough in this policy leader's shift to reverse course on deflating volatility and turnover? Loaded question, but I like ranges like $EURUSD more just in case. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/06/17/Dollar-and-Dow-Mark-Massive-Breaks-But-Are-There-Trends-Post-FOMC.html https://t.co/OvKBn6Qz1C
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/tLJc1BUnTu
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.63% Silver: 0.59% Oil - US Crude: -0.74% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/xfv1IST7Rv
US Dollar May Find Renewed Vigor in May's Retail Sales Report

US Dollar May Find Renewed Vigor in May's Retail Sales Report

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours puts the spotlight on May’s US Retail Sales report. News-flow from the world’s largest economy has increasingly improved relative to expectations since April, hinting analysts are underestimating the recovery’s vigor and opening the door for upside surprises. That opens the door for a rosy outcome to help bolsters investors’ Fed policy outlook, driving the US Dollar higher. Our long-term fundamental outlook continues to call for a stronger greenback.

The New Zealand Dollar soared overnight in the aftermath of the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. The central bank was widely expected to raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent but buyers seized on rhetoric arguing that “inflationary pressures are expected to increase” as a signal of further tightening to come. The Kiwi rose as much as 1.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts.

The Australian Dollar edged downward after a disappointing set of Employment figures. May’s data set showed the economy unexpectedly lost 4,800 jobs, marking the worst print in five months. Economists were forecasting a 10,000 increase ahead of the release. We continue to hold short AUDUSD.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

3.25%

3.25%

3.00%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (MAY)

57.0%

52.0%

55.0%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (APR)

-9.1%

-10.8%

19.1%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (APR)

17.6%

13.3%

16.1%

1:30

AUD

Credit Card Balances (A$) (APR)

49.8B

-

49.8B

1:30

AUD

Credit Card Purchases (A$) (APR)

21.3B

-

23.0B

1:30

AUD

Employment Change (MAY)

-4.8K

10.0K

10.3K

1:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (MAY)

5.8%

5.8%

5.8%

1:30

AUD

Full-Time Employment Change (MAY)

22.2K

-

13.8K

1:30

AUD

Part-Time Employment Change (MAY)

-27.0K

-

-3.6K

1:30

AUD

Participation Rate (MAY)

64.6%

64.7%

64.7%

2:00

JPY

Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (MAY)

6.52%

-

6.64%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (MAY)

-

0.2%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (MAY)

-

-1.3%

Low

6:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) (MAY)

0.1%

0.0%

Medium

6:45

EUR

French CPI (YoY) (MAY)

0.7%

0.7%

Medium

6:45

EUR

French CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAY)

0.1%

0.0%

Medium

6:45

EUR

French CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAY)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

8:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Monthly Report

-

-

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (APR)

0.5%

-0.3%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)

0.9%

-0.1%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3467

1.3502

1.3517

1.3537

1.3552

1.3572

1.3607

GBP/USD

1.6633

1.6706

1.6747

1.6779

1.682

1.6852

1.6925

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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