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Pound at Risk Before Industrial Output Data, Euro Eyeing ECB Chatter

Pound at Risk Before Industrial Output Data, Euro Eyeing ECB Chatter

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound at Risk if Industrial Production Data Falls Short of Forecasts
  • ECB Commentary in Focus for the Euro as Traders Build Policy Expectations
  • Yen Outperformed on Haven Demand as Japan’s Nikkei 225 Fell Overnight

UK Industrial Production figures headline an otherwise quiet economic calendar in European hours. The year-on-year growth rate is expected to have accelerated to 2.8 percent in April, marking a three-month high. UK news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks, hinting analysts are overestimating the health of the economy and opening the door for downside surprises. A disappointing print may weigh against supportive BOE policy expectations, punishing the British Pound. We are looking for a GBPUSD selling opportunity.

On the commentary front, a busy round-up of ECB officials is on tap. Governing Council members Erkki Liikanen, Benoit Coeure and Yves Mersch are all set to cross the wires. Traders will be looking for expanded policy guidance after last week’s announcement of expanded stimulus measures failed to produce a Euro breakout. Rhetoric suggesting the central bank is preparing to top-up stimulus further is likely to weigh on the single currency, and vice versa.

The Japanese Yen outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade as the island nation’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index declined, feeding haven demand for the safety-linked currency. The Yen rose as much as 0.2 percent on average against its major counterparts.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (MAY)

-2.1%

-

1.2%

22:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity (1Q)

0.6%

-

6.0%

22:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) (1Q)

0.5%

-

5.4%

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (MAY)

0.5%

1.6%

4.2%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M2 (YoY) (MAY)

3.3%

3.2%

3.5%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M3 (YoY) (MAY)

2.6%

2.7%

2.8%

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)

-5.4%

-3.5%

2.4%

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (MAY)

7

-

7

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (MAY)

-1

-

0

1:30

AUD

Home Loans (APR)

0.0%

0.2%

-0.8%

1:30

AUD

Investment Lending (APR)

2.3%

-

-0.6%

1:30

AUD

Value of Loans (MoM) (APR)

1.4%

-

-1.0%

1:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAY)

-6.0%

-

1.9%

1:30

CNY

CPI (YoY) (MAY)

2.5%

2.4%

1.8%

1:30

CNY

PPI (YoY) (MAY)

-1.4%

-1.5%

-2.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (MAY)

3.1%

3.2%

Medium

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAY)

3.1%

3.2%

Medium

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAY P)

-

48.7%

Low

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (APR)

-

3.0%

Low

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (APR)

0.4%

-0.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)

2.8%

2.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (APR)

0.4%

0.5%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (APR)

4.0%

3.3%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP (YoY) (1Q F)

-0.5%

-0.5%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP (QoQ) (1Q F)

-0.1%

-0.1%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3443

1.3529

1.3562

1.3615

1.3648

1.3701

1.3787

GBP/USD

1.6710

1.6758

1.6781

1.6806

1.6829

1.6854

1.6902

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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