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Euro to Look Past GDP, PMI Data as ECB Meeting Looms Ahead

Euro to Look Past GDP, PMI Data as ECB Meeting Looms Ahead

2014-06-04 03:24:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro May Look Past GDP, PMI Data as Focus Remains on ECB Meeting
  • US Dollar Looking to Extend Advance on Services ISM, Fed Beige Book
  • Aussie Dollar Gains on Upbeat GDP, Loonie Sinks Before BOC Meeting

A revised Eurozone GDP report is due to confirm output expanded 0.2 percent in the first quarter. Separately, the final Eurozone Composite PMI print is forecast to match preliminary estimates revealing a slight slowdown in manufacturing- and service-sector activity in May. The releases’ impact on the Euro may be relatively limited as traders mirror the ECB’s solitary focus on price stability. That may see markets looking past business cycle indicators to speculate on an expansion of stimulus efforts at this week’s monetary policy meeting after another dismal CPI print in May.

Later in the day, the spotlight will turn to US data, where May’s ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite reading as well as the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions headline the docket. US news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to expectations since early April, hinting analysts are underestimating the recovery’s vigor and opening the door for upside surprises. With that in mind, a firm ISM print coupled with a rosy Fed survey may help scatter lingering doubts about the approaching end of QE asset purchases and subsequent tightening. Such a turn of events is likely to bode well for the US Dollar.

The Australian Dollar narrowly outperformed in overnight trade after an upbeat set of first-quarter GDP figures. The report showed output grew 1.1 percent in the three months through March, topping expectations for a 0.9 percent gain and yielding the largest quarterly expansion in two years. The Canadian Dollar was weakest on the session as traders looked ahead to tomorrow’s Bank of Canada rate decision amid speculation about a dovish rhetorical shift to match the recent round of soft economic data.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (1Q)

16.0%

5.5%

0.5%

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAY)

-1.4%

-1.3%

-1.4%

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Service Index (MAY)

49.9

-

48.6

0:13

CNY

Leading Index (APR)

100.11

-

99.75

1:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (MAY)

-2.2%

-

-3.7%

1:30

AUD

GDP (QoQ) (1Q)

1.1%

0.9%

0.8%

1:30

AUD

GDP (YoY) (1Q)

3.5%

3.2%

2.7%

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Composite PMI (MAY)

49.2

-

46.3

1:35

JPY

Markit Services PMI (MAY)

49.3

-

46.4

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:45

EUR

Italian Markit/ADACI Composite PMI (MAY)

-

52.6

Low

7:45

EUR

Italian Markit/ADACI Services PMI (MAY)

51.4

51.1

Low

7:50

EUR

French Markit Services PMI (MAY F)

49.2

49.2

Low

7:50

EUR

French Markit Composite PMI (MAY F)

49.4

49.3

Low

7:55

EUR

German Markit Services PMI (MAY F)

56.4

56.4

Medium

7:55

EUR

German Markit/BME Composite PMI (MAY F)

56.1

56.1

Medium

8:00

EUR

Eurozone Markit Services PMI (MAY F)

53.5

53.5

Medium

8:00

EUR

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (MAY F)

53.9

53.9

Medium

8:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (MAY)

58.7

59.2

Medium

8:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (MAY)

58.2

58.7

Medium

8:30

GBP

Official Reserves (Changes) (MAY)

-

$139M

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone PPI (MoM) (APR)

-0.1%

-0.2%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone PPI (YoY) (APR)

-1.2%

-1.6%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (1Q P)

0.2%

0.2%

High

9:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP s.a. (YoY) (1Q P)

0.9%

0.9%

High

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q)

0.2%

-0.2%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Household Consumption (QoQ) (1Q)

0.1%

0.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (1Q)

0.0%

1.1%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3501

1.3561

1.3594

1.3621

1.3654

1.3681

1.3741

GBP/USD

1.6652

1.6703

1.6726

1.6754

1.6777

1.6805

1.6856

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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