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Forex: Euro at Risk as German CPI Data, PMI Revisions Guide ECB Bets

Forex: Euro at Risk as German CPI Data, PMI Revisions Guide ECB Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro at Risk as German CPI, Regional PMI Data Guides ECB Policy Outlook
  • Australian Dollar Sinks as Soft Building Approvals Data Weighs on RBA Bets
  • Japanese Yen Lower as Chinese PMI Uptick Boosts Risk Appetite, Nikkei 225

The preliminary set of May’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 1.1 percent, down from 1.3 percent recorded in the prior month. Final revisions of last month’s German, French and region-wide Manufacturing PMI readings are also on tap. On balance, news-flow from the Eurozone has proven increasingly disappointing relative to economists’ forecasts over recent months, opening the door for downside surprises. Such outcomes may amplify speculation about an expansion of ECB stimulus at this week’s policy meeting, weighing the Euro. We remain short EURUSD.

The Australian Dollar sank in overnight trade, down as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts, after a disappointing set of Building Approvals figures. The report showed permits fell 5.6 percent in April, marking the largest month-on-month decline in 10 months. The Aussie’s move lower tracked a parallel swoon in the benchmark 10-year bond yield, suggesting the soft data set worked to undermine RBA policy bets ahead of tomorrow’s interest rate decision.

The Japanese Yen also came under pressure as the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index advanced, sapping haven demand for the safety-linked currency. The swell in risk appetite likely followed a better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI print released over the weekend. The report showed factor-sector growth the world’s second-largest economy accelerated to the fastest pace in five months.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (MAY)

50.8

50.7

50.4

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Manufacturing Index (MAY)

49.2

-

44.8

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (1Q)

8.3%

5.8%

4.0%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending excl Software (1Q)

7.4%

5.9%

2.8%

23:50

JPY

Company Profits (1Q)

20.2%

-

26.6%

23:50

JPY

Company Sales (1Q)

5.6%

-

3.8%

0:00

AUD

RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (MAY)

-1.9%

-

0.3%

0:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (MAY)

0.3%

-

0.4%

0:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (MAY)

2.9%

-

2.8%

1:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (1Q)

3.1%

2.5%

2.5%

1:30

AUD

Inventories (QoQ) (1Q)

-1.7%

-0.4%

-0.6%

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (APR)

-5.6%

2.0%

-4.8%

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (APR)

1.1%

12.3%

20.9%

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (MAY F)

49.9

-

49.9

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-

-11.4%

6:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (MAY)

-

100.2

6:30

AUD

Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAY)

-

-12.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:30

CHF

Manufacturing PMI (MAY)

55.5

55.8

Low

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI (MAY)

53.6

54.0

Low

7:50

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI (MAY F)

49.3

49.3

Medium

7:55

EUR

Germany Manufacturing PMI (MAY F)

52.9

52.9

Medium

8:00

EUR

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (MAY F)

52.5

52.5

Medium

8:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (APR)

0.8B

1.1B

Medium

8:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (APR)

1.7B

1.8B

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (APR)

-

-2.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (APR)

-

-0.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (APR)

3.3%

2.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (APR)

64.5B

67.1K

Medium

8:30

GBP

PMI Manufacturing (MAY)

57.0

57.3

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (MAY P)

0.1%

-0.2%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (MAY P)

1.1%

1.3%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAY P)

0.1%

-0.3%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAY P)

1.0%

1.1%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3526

1.3577

1.3606

1.3628

1.3657

1.3679

1.373

GBP/USD

1.6621

1.6685

1.6720

1.6749

1.6784

1.6813

1.6877

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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