Forex: US Dollar May Rise Despite a Downgrade of 1Q GDP Data

Talking Points:

• New Zealand Dollar Falls as RBNZ Rate Hike Bets Unravel
• Aussie Dollar Shrugs Off Soft Data, Gains on Risk Appetite
• US Dollar May Rise Despite Downgrade of 1Q GDP Figure

The US Dollar corrected broadly lower in overnight trade after hitting a two-month high in the preceding 24 hours. The New Zealand Dollar likewise came under pressure in a move that once again tracked a decline in the island nation’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting recent weakness reflects eroding RBNZ interest rate hike expectations. We have entered short NZDUSD.

The Australian Dollar outperformed, shrugging off disappointing first-quarter Private Capital Expenditure data, to rise as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked an overnight rally in S&P 500 futures, pointing to a swell in risk appetite as the catalyst behind gains in the sentiment-linked currency. We remain short AUDUSD.

A bare European data docket puts the spotlight turns to the second revision of first-quarter US GDP figure. Expectations point to a downgrade showing output fell 0.5 percent. Initial estimates had the economy growing 0.1 percent.

Speculation about a revised print in negative territory has been swirling around for weeks. This may take the sting out of a soft print, with traders reacting to the outcome in relative rather than absolute terms. That means a better-than-expected outcome may drive the greenback higher even if it telegraphs a significantly weaker first quarter than previously thought.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak