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Forex: Euro, Swiss Franc Unlikely to Find Strength in Upbeat Data

Forex: Euro, Swiss Franc Unlikely to Find Strength in Upbeat Data

2014-05-28 05:02:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Swiss Franc Unlikely to Find Strength in Upbeat 1Q GDP Report
  • Euro Sellers to be Undeterred by Drop in German Unemployment
  • NZ Dollar Drops as Business Confidence Slump Erodes RBNZ Bets

Switzerland’s GDP figures are expected to show output grew 0.6 percent in the first quarter, marking the largest increase since the three months through June 2013. The release probably won’t offer meaningful direction cues to the Swiss Franc considering its limited implications for SNB monetary policy. Indeed, with the central bank forecasting inflation below 1 percent through 2015, Thomas Jordan and company seem unlikely to step away from an ultra-accommodative policy regime for some time yet. Technical positioning warns of deeper Franc losses ahead.

Germany’s Unemployment report may likewise pass with little fanfare. Jobless ranks in Eurozone’s largest economy are expected to contract by a further 15,000 in May, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. While signs of improvement in the German labor market are certainly not a Euro-negative, their ability to positively influence the single currency seem limited as speculation about an expansion of ECB stimulus as soon as next week continues to build. We remain short EURUSD.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, falling as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. Negative economic news-flow drove the selloff: the ANZ Business Confidence gauge fell to 53.5 in May from 64.8 recorded in April, marking the worst reading in six months. The Kiwi’s decline tracked a slide in New Zealand’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting the dour news release undermined RBNZ interest rate hike expectations. NZDUSD is eyeing key support near the 0.85 figure having found a topped at the beginning of the month.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (APR)

-0.5%

-

0.0%

1:00

AUD

CBAHIA House Affordability (1Q)

77.2

-

75.6

1:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (MAY)

51.0

-

52.5

1:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (MAY)

53.5

-

64.8

1:30

CNY

Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (APR)

10.0%

-

10.1%

1:30

AUD

Construction Work Done (1Q)

0.3%

-0.5%

-1.1%

1:45

CNY

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (MAY)

121.2

-

117.3

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

5:45

CHF

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q)

1.9%

1.7%

Medium

5:45

CHF

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q)

0.6%

0.2%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (YoY) (APR)

-2.2%

-3.3%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (MoM) (APR)

0.0%

-0.6%

Low

6:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (APR)

-

1.84

Low

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (MAY)

-15K

-25K

Medium

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAY)

6.7%

6.7%

Medium

8:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 s.a. (YoY) (APR)

1.1%

1.1%

Medium

8:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 s.a. (3m Avg) (APR)

1.2%

1.2%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (MAY F)

-7.1

-7.1

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Economic Confidence (MAY)

102.2

102.0

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Confidence (MAY)

-4

-3.6

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Services Confidence (MAY)

3.7

3.5

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (MAY)

0.30

0.27

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (MAY)

35

30

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3527

1.3583

1.3609

1.3637

1.3665

1.3695

1.3751

GBP/USD

1.6627

1.6726

1.6768

1.6813

1.6867

1.6924

1.7023

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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