We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇺🇸 USD Business Inventories (SEP), Actual: 0.0% Expected: 0.1% Previous: -0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-15
  • Commodities Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.41% Gold: -0.31% Silver: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/WVUI1dXDUv
  • RT @JLyonsFundMgmt: CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio just registered one of its Lowest Readings in Half a Decade $SPY $SPX https://t.co/M3lHiUTHFV
  • UK Election Poll (Panelbase) Nov 13/14 - Conservatives 43% (+3) - Labour 30% (unch) - Lib Dems 15% (unch) - Brexit Party 5% (-3)
  • 🇺🇸 USD Business Inventories (SEP), Actual: 0.0% Expected: 0.1% Previous: 0.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-15
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.63%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.80%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/eUtqm8E6JN
  • RT @EamonJavers: White House releases first phone call between President Trump and the president of Ukraine: https://t.co/rNLsna71Y4
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.29% Gold: -0.37% Silver: -0.52% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/XJRZGTC41L
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD Business Inventories (SEP) due at 15:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.1% Previous: 0.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-15
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.48% Wall Street: 0.43% France 40: 0.41% Germany 30: 0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/2FiT7gdzUs
Forex: US Dollar Looks for Strength in Upbeat Consumer Confidence Data

Forex: US Dollar Looks for Strength in Upbeat Consumer Confidence Data

2014-05-16 04:51:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Euro to Look Past Trade Balance Data, May Launch Corrective Rebound
  • UofM Data to Show US Consumer Confidence Hit 10-Month High in May
  • Risk Aversion May See USDJPY Diverge from Broader US Dollar Strength

The economic calendar is quiet in European trading hours. Eurozone Trade Balance figures amount to the only bit of semi-notable event risk, with the surplus expected to swell to €16.0 billion in march compared with €13.6 billion in the prior month. While a print in line with consensus forecasts would amount to the best print in four months, its implications for the Euro are likely to be limited at best in as much as the improvement will do little to discourage building ECB stimulus speculation. The single currency may have room for a corrective bounce amid a lull in negative news-flow however as markets digest the selloff following last week’s monetary policy announcement.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to May’s preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan gauge of US consumer confidence. Economists are penciling in a print at 84.5, which would amount to the strongest outcome in ten months. Furthermore, US economic news-flow has increasingly improved relative to expectations in early April, suggesting analysts are underestimating the resilience of recovery in the world’s largest economy and opening the door for an upside surprise.

Needless to say, such a result bodes well for the US Dollar against most of its leading counterparts. One possible exception could be USDJPY.Improving US data may dissipate lingering doubts about the continuity of the Fed’s effort to “taper” QE asset purchases, reinforcing the likelihood that the program will be would down this year and fueling speculation about subsequent interest rate hikes.That may hurt risk appetite, driving liquidation of Yen-funded carry trades and pushing the Japanese unit broadly higher. We continue to hold short GBPJPY.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:45

CNY

MNI Business Indicator (MAY)

53.7

-

51.1

2:16

CNY

Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) (APR)

3.4%

1.0%

-1.5%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR F)

7.4%

-

7.0%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR F)

0.7%

-

0.3%

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAR)

0.4%

-

-2.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

EU 25 New Car Registrations (APR)

-

10.6%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (1Q P)

-0.1%

0.1%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Wages (QoQ) (1Q P)

-

0.2%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance (€) (MAR)

16.0B

13.6B

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. (€) (MAR)

-

15.0B

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3529

1.3613

1.3661

1.3697

1.3745

1.3781

1.3865

GBP/USD

1.6628

1.6702

1.6746

1.6776

1.6820

1.6850

1.6924

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.