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Forex: US Dollar to Rise if Data Pickup Extends to Retail Sales Print

Forex: US Dollar to Rise if Data Pickup Extends to Retail Sales Print

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Upside Surprise on German ZEW Print Unlikely to Drive Euro Strength
  • US Dollar May Rise vs. Most Majors if Retail Sales Data Tops Forecasts
  • Currency Markets Mired in Quiet Consolidation in Asian Trading Hours

Germany’s ZEW Survey of investor confidence headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The forward-looking Expectations gauge is forecast to decline for a fifth consecutive month in May, yielding the lowest reading since July 2013. If the polling period for the survey included last week and thereby captured the dovish tone of the ECB monetary policy announcement, an upside surprise is not out the question. Such a print would reflect analysts’ hopes that an expansion of stimulus will bode well for growth in the coming months. A pickup driven by such considerations can hardly be expected to boost the Euro however.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to April’s US Retail Sales report. Expectations point to a 0.4 percent increase, marking the smallest gain in three months. US economic outcomes have increasingly improved relative to expectations since early April, opening the door for an upside surprise. As we discussed in our weekly outlook, such an outcome may help scatter doubts about the continuity of the Fed’s effort to “taper” QE asset purchases. Needless to say, such a result bodes well for the US Dollar against most of its leading counterparts. One possible exception could be the USDJPY: a pickup in speculation about US stimulus withdrawal may weigh on risk appetite, driving liquidation of Yen-funded carry trades and pushing the Japanese unit broadly higher. We have entered short GBPJPY.

Currency markets were little-changed overnight, with the G10 majors treading water against the greenback as a lull in headline event risk opened the door for digestion of last week’s surge of activity. The CVIX index of FX market volatility eased back after posting the largest one-day increase in four months after the ECB rate decision.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Food Prices (MoM) (APR)

0.6%

-

-0.3%

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (APR)

4.2%

1.6%

-1.7%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (APR)

2.8%

2.8%

2.9%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (APR)

3.4%

3.4%

3.6%

1:30

AUD

Home Loans (MAR)

-0.9%

1.0%

2.3%

1:30

AUD

Investment Lending (MAR)

-0.8%

-

4.4%

1:30

AUD

Value of Loans (MoM) (MAR)

-1.2%

-

1.8%

1:30

AUD

House Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)

1.7%

3.0%

3.8%

1:30

AUD

House Price Index (YoY) (1Q)

10.9%

10.4%

9.8%

5:30

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (APR)

17.7%

17.6%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (APR)

12.0%

12.0%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)

12.2%

12.2%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)

8.9%

8.8%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (APR)

8.7%

8.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (APR)

-

0.0%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (APR)

-

-1.7%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (APR F)

0.6%

0.3%

Low

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (MAY)

41.0

43.2

Medium

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Curr Situation) (MAY)

60.5

59.5

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (MAY)

-

61.2

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3708

1.3734

1.3746

1.3760

1.3772

1.3786

1.3812

GBP/USD

1.6744

1.6807

1.6838

1.6870

1.6901

1.6933

1.6996

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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