Talking Points:
- Euro May Lead Amid Correction, Offering a Short Trade Setup
- Japanese Yen Soft in Asia as Nikkei 225 Futures Gap Upward
- New Zealand Dollar Rebounds After Last Week’s Blood-Letting
The economic calendar is quiet in European and US trading hours, offering little by way of market-moving event risk. That opens the door for corrective price action as investors digest last week’s late surge of activity that took the CVIX index of currency market volatility to an eight-day high.
The swift pickup in activity followed an unexpectedly dramatic ECB rate decision where central bank President Mario Draghi threatened possible intervention into the Euro exchange rate. Not surprisingly, the single currency came under broad-based pressure, and so may now lead the way upward amid a correction. We are looking for a selling opportunity.
The Japanese Yen narrowly underperformed in muted overnight trade as Nikkei 225 futures gapped higher to start the trading week, undermining demand for the safe-haven currency. The New Zealand Dollar corrected upward having completed the largest five-day drop in three weeks on Friday.
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Asia Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
23:50 |
Current Account Total (¥) (MAR) |
116.4B |
347.7B |
612.7B |
|
|
23:50 |
Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (MAR) |
782.9B |
-545.8B |
-36.1B |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (MAR) |
1133.6B |
-1125.4B |
-533.4B |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (APR) |
2.1% |
- |
2.1% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (APR) |
2.2% |
- |
2.3% |
|
1:30 |
Credit Card Purchases (MAR) |
A$23.0B |
- |
A$21.4B |
|
|
1:30 |
Credit Card Balances (MAR) |
A$49.8B |
- |
A$50.2B |
|
|
1:30 |
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence (APR) |
6 |
- |
4 |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
NAB Business Conditions (APR) |
0 |
- |
1 |
|
3:00 |
REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (APR) |
0.1% |
- |
3.4% |
|
|
3:00 |
REINZ House Sales (YoY) (APR) |
-20.2% |
- |
-10.0% |
|
|
4:30 |
JPY |
Bankruptcies (YoY) (APR) |
- |
-12.37% |
|
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Eco Watchers Survey: Current (APR) |
45.0 |
57.9 |
|
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (APR) |
40.0 |
34.7 |
European Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
7:15 |
Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAR) |
1.9% |
1.0% |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
Lloyds Employment Confidence (APR) |
- |
-2 |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
Supp 3 |
Supp 2 |
Supp 1 |
Pivot Point |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
Res 3 |
|
1.3583 |
1.3683 |
1.3721 |
1.3783 |
1.3821 |
1.3883 |
1.3983 |
|
|
1.6662 |
1.6768 |
1.6809 |
1.6874 |
1.6915 |
1.6980 |
1.7086 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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