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Forex: US Dollar Looking for Fed Policy Clues in Durable Goods Report

Forex: US Dollar Looking for Fed Policy Clues in Durable Goods Report

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • NZ Dollar Higher on RBNZ Rate Hike But Gains May Prove Fleeting
  • Upside Surprise on German IFO Survey Data May Not Help the Euro
  • US Dollar Looks to Extend Recovery, Eyeing Durable Goods Report

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its benchmark interest rate to 3 percent, the highest since January 2011. Follow-through may be limited however. The monetary policy statement seemed to suggest that the level of the exchange rate will be considered in setting future policy, which presumably suggests that appreciation will undermine the case for further tightening. That may undermine traders’ interest in the Kiwi, capping upside potential.

Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The headline Business Climate index is expected to tick lower to 110.4 in April, marking the second consecutive decline and the lowest level in four months. An upside surprise may be in the cards as persistent disinflation feeds ECB interest rate cut speculation. Indeed, a measure of the priced-in 12 month policy outlook has notably trended lower since the beginning of the month. A pickup in sentiment driven by hopes for monetary easing hardly bodes well for the Euro however.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the US Durable Goods Orders report. A 2 percent increase is expected in March, an outcome that would mark a slight slowing compared with the 2.2 percent gain recorded in February. Economic data outcomes from the world’s largest economy notably improved relative to forecasts in the past two weeks however (according to data from Citigroup). If that trend continues, ebbing doubt about the continued withdrawal of Fed stimulus may offer yield-based support for the US Dollar.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

3.00%

3.00%

2.75%

23:50

JPY

Corporate Service Price (YoY) (MAR)

0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

2:00

CNY

Conference Board Leading Index (MAR)

285.7

-

282.3

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance (CHF) (MAR)

-

2.62B

Medium

6:00

CHF

Imports (MoM) (MAR)

-

0.8%

Low

6:00

CHF

Exports (MoM) (MAR)

-

0.4%

Low

8:00

EUR

German IFO - Business Climate (APR)

110.5

110.7

High

8:00

EUR

German IFO - Current Assessment (APR)

115.7

115.2

High

8:00

EUR

German IFO - Expectations (APR)

105.8

106.4

High

10:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (APR)

17

13

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3714

1.3769

1.3793

1.3824

1.3848

1.3879

1.3934

GBP/USD

1.6648

1.6721

1.6751

1.6794

1.6824

1.6867

1.6940

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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