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Pound to Look Past Jobless Claims Data, Dollar Eyes Fed Beige Book

Pound to Look Past Jobless Claims Data, Dollar Eyes Fed Beige Book

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Pound Unlikely to Find Momentum in an On-Trend Jobless Claims Decline
  • US Dollar Rebound May Continue to Pro-Taper Tone in Fed’s Beige Book
  • NZ Dollar Weakens as Soft CPI Erodes RBNZ Bets, Yen Falls as Stocks Rise

The March set of UK Jobless Claims figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Consensus forecasts are pointing to a 30k decline in applications for unemployment benefits. Such an outcome would fall in line with the 12-month trend average (-30.3k), offering little impetus for traders to reshape their Bank of England policy bets following the release. With that in mind, the release seems unlikely to generate a meaningful response from the British Pound absent a significant deviation from expectations.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions. The report informs policymakers’ view of the health of the recovery. That means that a relatively upbeat tone may bolster bets on continued “tapering” of QE asset purchases, offering yield-derived support for the US Dollar. News-flow supportive of a relatively hawkish policy outlook in the form of better-than-expected Retail Sales and CPI figures has helped lift the greenback from a six-month low this week.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade after CPI data showed inflation unexpectedly slowed in the first quarter, weighing against RBNZ interest rate hike expectations. The year-on-year price growth registered at 1.5 percent, down from 1.6 percent in the three months through December 2013. Economists were forecasting a print at 1.7 percent ahead of the release. The Japanese Yen likewise came under pressure as stocks advanced in Asian trade, sapping demand for the safe-haven currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 0.7 percent.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

CPI (YoY) (1Q)

1.5%

1.7%

1.6%

22:45

NZD

CPI (QoQ) (1Q)

0.3%

0.5%

0.1%

0:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (MoM)

0.0%

-

-0.1%

1:30

CNY

Entrepreneur Confidence Index (1Q)

124.3

-

121.0

1:30

CNY

Business Climate Index (1Q)

128.0

-

124.3

1:45

CNY

MNI Business Indicator (APR)

51.1

-

53.4

2:00

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (MAR)

17.6%

18.0%

17.9%

2:00

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

12.2%

12.1%

11.8%

2:00

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (MAR)

12.0%

11.9%

11.8%

2:00

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)

8.8%

9.0%

9.7%

2:00

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (MAR)

8.7%

8.8%

8.6%

2:00

CNY

GDP YTD (YoY) (1Q)

7.4%

7.3%

7.7%

2:00

CNY

GDP SA (QoQ) (1Q)

1.4%

1.5%

1.7%

2:00

CNY

GDP (YoY) (1Q)

7.4%

7.3%

7.7%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB F)

3.8%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB F)

6.9%

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (FEB)

5.9%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (MAR)

3.4%

3.5%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (MAR)

-30.0K

-34.6K

Medium

8:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (FEB)

1.8%

1.4%

Low

8:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (FEB)

1.7%

1.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (FEB)

7.1%

7.2%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Employment Change (3M/3M) (FEB)

90K

105K

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) (MAR)

1.0%

0.3%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (MAR F)

0.5%

0.5%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (MAR F)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

9:00

CHF

ZEW Survey (Expectations) (APR)

-

19.0

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3729

1.3771

1.3793

1.3813

1.3835

1.3855

1.3897

GBP/USD

1.6537

1.6625

1.6677

1.6713

1.6765

1.6801

1.6889

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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