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Pound at Risk on Soft UK Inflation Data, Euro to Look Past ZEW Outcome

Pound at Risk on Soft UK Inflation Data, Euro to Look Past ZEW Outcome

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Fall as Soft Inflation Data Erodes BOE Policy Bets
  • Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Volatility in German ZEW Survey Outcome
  • US Dollar May Rise on QE “Taper” Continuity is CPI Tops Expectations

The March set of UK inflation data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year CPI measure of price growth is expected to edge lower to 1.6 percent, marking the lowest level since October 2009. Year-on-year measures of wholesale and retail inflation (PPI and RPI, respectively) are likewise expected to tick downward to the weakest levels in nearly five years. Weakening price pressures speak to still-ample spare capacity in the economy. That means soft readings may push back against BOE policy normalization expectations, weighing on the British Pound.

Germany’s ZEW Survey of analyst confidence set to show a gauge of sentiment about the economy’s prospects in the coming six months dropped issued its fourth consecutive decline in April, hitting the lowest level since August 2013. Absent a particularly sharp deviation from expectations, the data is unlikely to generate a potent response from the Euro given its limited implications for ECB monetary policy expectations. Indeed, depending on when the survey was conducted, an upside surprise may be in the cards if analysts’ views were informed by the dovish rhetoric surrounding this month’s ECB policy announcement. Needless to say, that would be hardly supportive of the single currency.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the US CPI report. The baseline year-on-year inflation rate is forecast to rise to 1.4 percent in March having hit a four-month low at 1.1 percent in the prior month. US price growth readings have improved relative to consensus forecasts over the past three months, according to data from Citigroup. That suggests economists are underestimating the recent build in inflationary pressure, opening the door for an upside surprise on today’s print. Such an outcome may help reboot confidence in the continuity of the Federal Reserve’s QE “tapering” cycle, offering a lift to the US Dollar.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (MAR)

-1.7%

1.0%

-1.0%

1:30

AUD

RBA April Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

4:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (MAR)

-

-24.1%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAR F)

-

41.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (MAR)

0.0%

-0.4%

Low

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (MAR)

-0.8%

-0.8%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

0.1%

0.1%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

0.9%

1.1%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

0.1%

0.0%

Medium

8:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

0.3%

0.5%

Medium

8:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

-0.2%

-0.4%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

-6.1%

-5.7%

Low

8:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.2%

0.5%

High

8:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (MAR)

1.6%

1.8%

High

8:30

GBP

CPI Core (YoY) (MAR)

1.6%

1.7%

High

8:30

GBP

RPI (MAR)

255.1

254.2

Low

8:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%

0.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (MAR)

2.5%

2.7%

Low

8:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int Payments (YoY) (MAR)

2.5%

2.7%

Low

8:30

GBP

ONS House Prices (YoY) (FEB)

-

6.8%

Low

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Curr Situation) (APR)

51.8

51.3

High

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (APR)

45.0

46.6

High

9:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (APR)

-

61.5

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. (€) (MAR)

15.0B

14.1B

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance (€) (MAR)

10.0B

0.9B

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3721

1.3776

1.3798

1.3831

1.3853

1.3886

1.3941

GBP/USD

1.6629

1.6676

1.6702

1.6723

1.6749

1.6770

1.6817

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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