Talking Points:
- Euro May Extend Drop as Soft German CPI Fuels ECB Stimulus Bets
- British Pound Likely to Overlook Final Revision of 4Q UK GDP Data
- US Dollar May Bounce if UofM Revision Tops Economists’ Forecasts
March’s preliminary German CPI report headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to decline to 1.1 percent, the lowest since August 2010. Weak price growth readings in the Eurozone’s largest economy may fuel concerns about continued disinflation region-wide and drive speculation about a near-term expansion of ECB stimulus efforts, weighing on the Euro. The single currency dropped to a three-week low yesterday.
The final revision of fourth-quarter UK GDP data is expected to match earlier estimates showing output grew 0.7 percent, confirming a marginal slowdown from the 0.8 percent increase recorded in the three months through September. Absent a material deviation from consensus forecasts, the release seems unlikely to yield a significant response from the British Pound considering its limited implications for the near-term direction of BOE monetary policy.
Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to February’s US Personal Consumption and Spending figures as well as the final revision of the March Consumer Confidence measure from the University of Michigan. While the former two data points are expected to print in line with 12-month trend averages and so may not inspire a hearty response from the markets, the latter is expected to be revised higher.
A larger upgrade in line with the better-than-expected outcome on an analogous indicator from the Conference Board earlier in the week may further erode doubts about Fed QE “taper” continuity. That stands to boost the yield attraction of the US Dollar, driving the benchmark currency upward from support at the March swing low.
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Asia Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
23:30 |
Household Spending (YoY) (FEB) |
-2.5% |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
|
23:30 |
JPY |
National CPI (YoY) (FEB) |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.4% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (FEB) |
1.3% |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (FEB) |
0.8% |
0.8% |
0.7% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo CPI (YoY) (MAR) |
1.3% |
1.2% |
1.1% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAR) |
1.0% |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAR) |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Jobless Rate (FEB) |
3.6% |
3.7% |
3.7% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Job-To-Applicant Ratio (FEB) |
1.05 |
1.05 |
1.04 |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Retail Trade (YoY) (FEB) |
3.6% |
3.5% |
4.4% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (FEB) |
0.3% |
0.1% |
1.6% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Large Retailers' Sales (FEB) |
1.3% |
0.8% |
0.0% |
|
0:05 |
GFK Consumer Confidence (MAR) |
-5 |
-6 |
-7 |
European Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
7:00 |
German Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB) |
-2.4% |
-2.3% |
Low |
|
|
7:00 |
EUR |
German Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB) |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
Low |
|
8:00 |
KOF Institute Spring Economic Forecast |
- |
- |
Low |
|
|
9:30 |
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) (4Q F) |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Medium |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
GDP (YoY) (4Q F) |
2.7% |
2.7% |
Medium |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
Total Business Investment (QoQ) (4Q F) |
2.4% |
2.4% |
Low |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q F) |
8.5% |
8.5% |
Low |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
Current Account (£) (4Q) |
-13.8B |
-20.7B |
Low |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
Index of Services (MoM) (JAN) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
Low |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
Index of Services (3M/3M) (JAN) |
0.9% |
0.8% |
Low |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
Lloyds Business Barometer (MAR) |
- |
53 |
Low |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Services Confidence (MAR) |
3.7 |
3.2 |
Low |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (MAR) |
101.3 |
101.2 |
Low |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (MAR) |
-3.5 |
-3.4 |
Low |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAR F) |
- |
-9.3 |
Medium |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (MAR) |
0.38 |
0.37 |
Low |
|
13:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) (MAR P) |
0.4% |
0.5% |
High |
|
13:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) (MAR P) |
1.1% |
1.2% |
High |
|
13:00 |
EUR |
German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR P) |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Medium |
|
13:00 |
EUR |
German CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR P) |
0.9% |
1.2% |
Medium |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
Supp 3 |
Supp 2 |
Supp 1 |
Pivot Point |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
Res 3 |
|
1.3619 |
1.3687 |
1.3714 |
1.3755 |
1.3782 |
1.3823 |
1.3891 |
|
|
1.6420 |
1.6512 |
1.6562 |
1.6604 |
1.6654 |
1.6696 |
1.6788 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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